One of the things is clear and on an off day maybe it helps to address this because I want folks to be comfortable with the data I present here.
Despite what some of you might think, I don't REALLY consider myself a statistics geek. I do consider myself exceptional at working with statistics and deciding how to present data in a way that makes sense. For me this is a journey. When the data I use doesn't seem to paint the right picture, I will spend scores and sometimes hundreds of hours exploring for the right data.
So one may ask
Why does Larry use xwOBA data so much?
Some of the links that follow will support my usage and some may give one caution about using xwOBA.
From a practical view it is available for pitchers and hitters on baseball savant. I can get it by pitch. I can pull platoon data. I can get platoon data by pitch.
It measures and values appropriately the value of both getting on base AND power
I like wOBA and xwOBA because I can compare it batter to pitcher. A batter that has an average xwOBA being pitched to by an average xwOBA pitcher should lead to average results. What if one or both are not average? That is the statistical analysis I love xwOBA for.
I am aware that FIP may as predictive as wOBA or xwOBA. Usually I am showing ERA, FIP, wOBA, and xwOBA when fully describing pitching statistics. However, I can not cross reference FIP, DRA, or ERA to an opposing batter for the predictive models I build.
Let me share several links that I think do a great job defining wOBA and xwOBA and some of the other metrics I use. I don't believe in rewriting things when someone else has already given you the best and clear answer.
LINKS- I will add more with time
"These weights change on a yearly basis, so you can find the specific wOBA weights for every year from 1871 to the present here."
Fangraphs defines wOBA as a gateway statistic
Simple Sabermetrics - Guide to Baseball's Expected Statistics
Sam Sharpe compares- xwOBA to other stats
Baseball Prospectus is not a believer in xwOBA but they push their own DRA- perhaps for 2023 I will learn more about DRA- and DRA+
Right now I use xwOBA as a basis of a lot of my analysis. Can I learn and grow to something else? Of course. I wanted to write this more as documentation for you to understand what it all means.
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