Discover the Astros' trade assets and their market values. Learn about the viable trade assets and who the team may be willing to trade. Read more!
We promised that when we hit the All-Star Break that we would be all over the Astros trade deadline. We are.
Clint discussed the big picture here.
I defined the Astros trade deadline needs.
We will be live tonight talking about all of this and more at 8pm. Don’t miss it.
I am adding my analysis of options for Deal for a 1B.
Later we looked at some Discount options at 1B
We also wrote REAL options for a SP deal.
Every year in July, I feel like the Grinch that stole Christmas. Astros fans have a million ideas how they think the team can get better by trading for players that the team:
Can not afford financially
Can not afford from a trade value perspective
This is what it means to think like a GM and why LarryTheGM.com exists.
On the financial front, the Astros are AT the CBT-2 Threshold at a $256.8M CBT Payroll. They WILL NOT go over the CBT-3 of $277M. I THINK they will pay will prospects and contracts out to be creative to stay under the CBT-2 but that would seem nearly impossible. My focus when we get to trade targets next will be to go after as low of cost options as I can.
Let's get grounded on who is and who isn't available for Astros trades this month. Let's also be objective on how valuable our players are. This will help you evaluate the fake trades people try to make you believe are possible. I rather start the hard-core discussion with understanding where the Astros Trade values are because THAT will be an inherent governor against wild trade proposals.
We have discussed trade value often. I took folks on a DEEP dive on that last year. I gave folks the trade value of EVERY Astros system player as published by the excellent BaseballTradeValues.com site.
You can read that article here.
Here is an issue. That website has fairly decided they want to be PAID for their work. I have a subscription. However, I am not going to give you the value of every player. If you want them, subscribe to their site.
What I am going to do is work through the roster of players and show you who is and is not tradeable and then give you a RANGE of their values. Frankly, a range is probably more appropriate anyway.
Before we get to the viable trade assets let's systematically rule out players in my list of 121 players.
Also note the discussion I wrote about the 40-man roster in
When / IF McCullers, Garcia, Murfee, and the others (I am not sure there are any) on the 60-day IL return from their injuries, the Astros are going to be in a semi-critical roster squeeze. IF they trade for 2 players, the Astros will have 45 players that need to be on the 40-man roster for the postseason.
Here is what I would currently project that to look like.
The players in blue would be the candidates to be traded or DFAd off of the 40-man roster. All of these will be in the tradeable assets list.
Also, what is clear with this view that we will focus on later is that the pitchers we trade for MUST be better than Arrighetti, Bloss, Montero, Martinez, Dubin, and Murfee. The only exception may be to get an innings eater SP. That is for later, however.
Non-viable Trade Assets- The players the Astros won't trade or won't get major value in trading
Let's use some of the categories I discussed last year
Untradeables
The Injured
Untouchables
Price Dispute
Throw-Ins
The Untradeables- Even if the team wanted to trade these players, doing so is almost impossible.
The Injured- A new subgroup this year. These are the players that no team will want because they are injured now or seem to always be injured. They are untradeable because of injuries.
The Untouchables- These are the players the team is not going to trade at this time.
I do not think the Astros would trade any of these 13 players for any price. They are the core of the team.
Price Dispute- The Players in this group are given little to no value and I believe the Astros would demand they do have significant value.
Throw-Ins- This group of players have almost no trade value and are likely throw-ins on a deal that needs one more player from the Astros to be considered fair. Many of these COULD be traded but they are not viable as major trade VALUE pieces.
Notice that:
Of the thirteen players in the 40-man roster table that I labeled candidates to be traded or DFAd off of the 40-man roster are in this group.
Notice that almost all of this group
Have 1 or less options. I believe that 1 is showing the options BEFORE this year. The 1 indicates they have NO OPTIONS NEXT YEAR.
Were Rule 5 draft eligible in 12/23. They are at risk to be drafted again this December if they are not added to the 40-man roster.
Will be Rule 5 draft eligible in 12/24. They are at risk to be drafted again this December if they are not added to the 40-man roster.
Only 7 of the 25 Throw-ins are not in one of these three categories.
Combined these three lists represent 53 of the 121 players in the trade value Astros database. Over 40 percent can't be/ won't be/ don't deliver value in a trade.
Viable Trade Assets- The players the Astros would be willing to trade and have value
I am not going to give you the BaseTradeValue.com trade values for these but I will put them in value order from the lowest to highest and give you that range.
Blow me Away
Available
Good Value
Small Value
Discount
Blow me Away- These players are nearly untouchable unless a team is willing to blow the Astros away with a value double or triple or more their fair-trade value. Range 2.3-32.5.
Some of these were the players I was asked about in April and May. This group would likely be a headliner in major trades. There is a value drop in significant steps down to Baez. Baez, Dezenzo, McCormick are at a similar level. Then staller drops after that.
Tucker- the most valuable potential trade asset that the Astros would even consider trading. The team would have to fall apart. Tucker and/or his Agent would have to make it clear that the team had no chance to sign him to an extension. Tucker will be a FA if not extended after the end of 2025 season. The offer would have to value Tucker at a 3X type value. Not Likely.
Melton- I could have put Melton in the untouchables group. IF the Astros are making a splash deal it likely starts with a 2X value on Melton.
Valdez- Framber will be a FA if not extended after the end of 2025 season. If the Astros were to trade him, they better be getting two viable MLB SP in return. This too could have been in the untouchables groups too.
Meyers and McCormick- Meyers has almost 2X to McCormick. If the Astros make a significant move either Jake or Chas will likely be leaving.
Baez and Dezenzo- If the Astros make a significant trade and want only prospects, these two will likely headline the trade.
Bregman- Alex is only getting traded if the Astros tank and it is clear that the team will not be able to re-sign him.
Blubaugh- Blubaugh will only be traded if a team totally overpays (more than 3X value) and the Astros need to be getting a non-rental SP.
Available- These are the players each team will be willing to trade at near market trade value. Some of these players will be in medium value deals.
Good Value- Range 1.6 to 2.7- 15 players in this group
Small Value- Range 0.4 to 1.4- 38 players in this group.
Discount- These players are on the clearance aisle. They might only be worth 30-60% of their fair-trade value. Range 0.4 to 1.2.
These players aging out of prospect status. They are Rule 5 players and/or burning their options.
You may think I have made it too complicated. I do think this system helps one stay focused on who is and who isn't available. Also, it helps to understand who has value and who doesn't really.
Now you have a better understand who the Astros can trade and what each has from a trade asset value perspective.
Now that I have given you the Astros trade values let me give you an idea of the trade values of potential targets. The complete list in alphabetical order is below.
First Base- 3.9 to 9.7
I am adding my analysis of options for Deal for a 1B.
Starting Pitching- -13.5 (yes MINUS) to 8.5
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