All offseason we have been monitoring the Astros transactions and for some in the fan base their lack of transactions.
Folks, this offseason has gone VERY much like I thought it would. I know some believed this team would make splashes and blow their financial constraints.
Today, we got word that Kendall Graveman was out for the season after shoulder surgery. The fan base seemed to enter into freak out mode. I shared my thoughts on replacing Graveman here.
The Graveman situation is a good opportunity to once again ask the fundamental question- Are the Astros Better in 2024 than they were in 2023?
Today, we will review this by going role by role and compare the player's 2023 ACTUAL performance with how they are PROJECTED for the 2024 season.
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Now let's continue.
We will use the report card method which has been updated to these scales.
These are the scales for PLAYERS.
The hitters scale based on wRC+.
The pitchers scale based on FIP or FIP-.
This is the scale for evaluating TEAM Units.
The Hitter Comparison
2023
2024
You can see the two lineups by position and here is how the two matchup.
You can see where the offense projects to be better and worse by position.
Catcher is a MASSIVE positional upgrade from D to A.
Abreu is projected to be significantly better in 2024.
The projections expect Altuve to be more human like than the baseball god he was in 2023.
McCormick is also projected to take a step back or two. Is this real?
Overall, the bench is even expected to be slightly better.
The 2024 team projects to be better in hitting (B+ to A- reflecting the wRC+ going from 112 to 119). This was almost a two letter grade increase. The Astros project to have an EXTREMELY good top 3 offense in 2024.
The Pitcher Comparison
2023
2024
You can see the two lineups by roles and here is how the two matchup.
You can see where the pitching projects to be better and worse by position.
Overall, the pitching is not as good as the hitting.
The differences here are not as significant in most cases.
The roles were set here factoring in IP or projected to be pitched.
A healthy McCullers projects to be better as a back of the rotation role. He actually may be a long RP.
The 2024 version of Urquidy is also expected to be better than the back rotation role than Bielak.
The back of the bullpen is also projected to be better than the 2023 version.
The 2024 team projects to be better a little better in pitching (C+ to B- reflecting the FIP- going from 102 to 97). The Astros pitching is probably a top ten pitching staff.
Both the offense and pitching project to be better in hitting and pitching. The margins here are NOT huge. It is probably a better jump forward for the hitters.
Overall, based on this projected improvement the Astros probably win a couple more games in 2024.
So, while Astros fans in general are freaking out about the 2024 Astros, the data here says they are likely to be a 92ish win team and win the AL West.
We will keep this updated as significant moves are made.
We will show these grade maps for the other teams as we approach the season.
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