Texas Flexed in the Transfer Portal- Adjusted Rating

Executive Summary

Texas has done a great job in the transfer portal allowing/ encouraging players who were unlikely to start to leave and acquiring key players to fill important needs.

Overall, the team added six players likely to start and two more that will be in the rotation for playing time in the portal. This is excellent use of the Transfer portal and why I say Texas flexed in the transfer portal.

Background

We have introduced the Talent and Development Adjusted Rating to track how both genetics (as reflected in a prospect's talent in their initial recruiting rating) and environment (the ability of a program to help a player develop) work together to define a college football player's performance on the field. It would help you to understand the rest of this by reading this introduction first.

Talent and Development- The Adjusted Rating

Today, we will look at the players the Texas Longhorns have added and lost through the transfer portal and compare them to the remaining roster.

To do this we will once again use the key data for the LarryTheGM Adjusted Rating.

• Recruiting Ranking (247 Sports Composite Index)

• Or Transfer Ranking (247 Transfer Portal)

• Additionally premium data from (PFF Pro Football Focus) you do not see

  • Snap Counts by season

  • PFF Offense and Defense Grades

  • These go into calculating what is shown as the development grade.
    

That development grade is added to the recruiting or transfer grade to give us the Adjusted Rating.

The transfer players pose a special challenge of applying the Adjusted Rating to them. I wrote this supplement to help explain how I applied the Adjusted Rating system to transfer players here.

Transfer Players- Adjusted Rating

Adjusted Rating Calculation for Transfer Players - Detail (larrythegm.com)

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Now let's continue.

We are going to cover the players that have both left to and arrived from the transfer portal.

Portal Out

Here are the players that have left so far. I included where they have transferred to at the right.

The Longhorns have lost 13 players to the portal, and they will lose 4 to 6 more guys from their current roster. I say that because Texas currently has 89 on the roster which means four would need to transfer out. Then, I think Texas may add at least two more from the transfer portal.

You can see by the Adjusted Rating for these transfers only three would be considered 4-star players and only two more would be considered high 3-star developing players. The 2024 Longhorns roster has 32 players rated as high 3-star developing players per the Adjusting Rating.

(If you don't understand what that paragraph means you may want to go back to the original article at the first link above.)

Over half of the players that have left had minimal playing time and minimal development. These players were going to be behind younger players and probably have even less playing time. Of this group, Maalik Murphy probably had the greatest potential for playing time, but it was likely that Manning would have passed him as Ewers' backup.

Four of the Longhorns players that have left are more interesting:

• Isaiah Neyor- has played EIGHT snaps in 2022-2023 due to injuries. He would have had to battle for playing time if the Longhorns had added the receivers they did. Given the history, it made sense for Neyor to have a fresh start.

• Jerin Thompson- Thompson is the highest rated player to transfer out. Texas had already had the commitment of Mukuba on 12/18/23, and this made it clear that they had targeted a seasoned player to start in the portal and that Derek Williams would be given the preference for starts. Not only that, but Filsaime is a 5-star recruit that was likely to push for playing time as the season progressed. With all of that, Thompson may have wondered if better opportunities existed in his pre-draft season. Given he ended up at Auburn, he may have been right.

• Jalon Catalon- Catalon was in a similar situation. He was likely behind others at safety. He also had more injuries in his one year at Texas and had limited snaps in 2023 (142). Catalon will be playing in his sixth season.

• Trill Carter- Carter will also be playing a sixth year and also goes to Auburn. He did not play as many snaps as he did at Minnesota which is not a surprise given the starters (Sweat, Murphy). He played less than Collins and Broughton too, and that is probably the key. Carter was likely told the coaching staff would be pursuing another DT and he probably thought he would be fourth in the rotation. Given it is his contract year he had to pursue a better option for playing time.

• Kitan Crawford- Crawford was even further down the PT list at safety and if Crawford had any hope of being a draftable player he needed to find a spot for playing time. He will now play for the former Texas LB coach Jeff Choate at Nevada.

Overall, I would say, given the additions we will cover next, the portal out players made the best decisions for their football careers. Texas surely could have kept Thompson in particular and maybe not gone after Mukuba, but I think they believed Mukuba had more potential. Without trying to sound bad, Texas needed most of the players that have left in the portal to leave.

As we build to the likely depth chart, this background for the players who left provides the profile for other players that may be leaving after May. The multi-year players buried on the depth chart are prime candidates.

Portal In

Texas has addressed their KEY needs in the additions they have made in the portal.

• Texas needed experienced Wide Receivers- they got three

• Texas needed a starting level Tight End- they added a very good one

• Texas needed a proven rusher on the Edge- they got a great one

• Texas wanted to upgrade at starting safety- they got a good player that might do that

• Texas needed an experienced Linebacker- they added one

• Texas needed some Defensive Tackles to challenge the starters for playing time- They added at least good depth and are rumored to lead for a probable starter later.

The portal is not done, and Texas will likely add at least two more after the portal reopens in May.

Here is the group of players Texas has added so far.

You can see by the Adjusted Rating for these transfers in, Texas added four plyers that would be considered 4-star developed players already (per the adjusted rating.) Two more players would be considered high 3-star developing players. Texas has added more talent that can compete for playing time in the eight players they have added in the portal than they lost in the thirteen portal players leaving.

Trey Moore- Moore was a GREAT Edge at UTSA. Enjoy this video clip from YouTube to see him in action. If he can even approach what he has done, he is going to be a star at a position that needed one. He can be a role model for some of the younger studs on the roster like Colin Simmons. He steps in as the second highest adjusted rated player on defense. He projects as a four star Adjusted Rating developed player heading into his junior year. This was a 10 out of 10 transfer.

Andrew Mukuba- Mukuba wanted to come home and Texas was thrilled to have him step in and provide seasoned leadership in the defensive secondary. He will likely start at safety. He steps in as the third highest adjusted rated player on defense. He projects as a four star Adjusted Rating developed player heading into his senior year. This was a 9.5 out of 10 transfer. (Maybe I am being a tough grader.) The video to the left shows how "On Texas Football" responded to the Mukuba transfer.

The Texas Wide Receiver core was depleted with Worthy, Mitchell, and Whittington and their 2023 combined 2278 snaps. Texas has GREAT young wide receivers to replace them, but they had a combined 188 snaps in 2023. They wanted experience and boy did they get it. The three WRs Texas added have a combined 2921 snaps.

Isaiah Bond- Bond is the headliner of the three WR portal additions. He had a great year at Alabama in 2023. He will be the primary target at WR in 2024. He steps in as the fourth highest adjusted rated player on offense with 970 snaps. He projects as a four star Adjusted Rating developed player heading into his junior year. This was a 9.5 out of 10 transfer. "Bama_edits" will get you excited with this video.

Silas Bolden- Bolden experienced strong development at Oregon State. He is likely to also compete for a starting WR in his senior season. He will be a rotation WR in the least. He steps in as the fifth highest adjusted rated player on offense with 1010 snaps. He projects as a four star Adjusted Rating developed player heading. This was a 9 out of 10 transfer. Here is what Orangebloods had to say when Bolden committed.

Matthew Golden- Golden was the first player added by Texas from the transfer portal. He is likely to also compete for a starting WR in his junior season. He will be a rotation WR in the least. He projects as a four star Adjusted Rating developed player with 941 snaps. This was an 8.5 out of 10 transfer. Here is what Inside Texas had to say when Golden was signed.

Amari Niblack- With the departure of Sanders, TE at Texas in 2024 was thin too for experience. Niblack is a critical add at that position and probable starter. Overall, Niblack has been a very productive TE weapon. He projects as a high three star Adjusted Rating developed player heading into his junior year. This was an 8.5 out of 10 transfer. Texas fans will feel differently about this Niblack highlight now from STX.

Tiaoalii Savea- With the departures of Sweat and Murphy to the draft and Carter to the portal, DT escalated to possibly the most critical need behind WR in the Portal. Savea projects to be in the DT rotation. I would expect additional help at DT to be coming in the May Portal window. He projects as a three star Adjusted Rating developed player heading into his senior year. This was a 7 out of 10 transfer. Here is the Inside Texas breakdown on Savea.

Kendrick Blackshire- Hill, Blackwell, and Gbenda are best suited as OLBs and there was an experience void at MLB. Blackshire has the opportunity to compete for a starting MLB role in the Texas defense. Blackshire has been productive in limited snaps at Alabama but had been buried on their depth chart. He could outperform his projection of a three star Adjusted Rating developed player heading into his senior year. This was a 7 out of 10 transfer. Kyle Henderson gives you the Alabama perspective on Blackshire when he entered the portal.

Overall, it appears to me that Texas has managed the transfer portal excellently. Most of the players that left needed to leave. Most of their roster needs/ weaknesses have been helped by the portal players they added. Texas truly flexed in the portal.

Hook 'Em!

For those that have asked, please remember the Adjusted Rating scale is different than the recruiting scale.

The Adjusted Rating scale is built with an expectation of development and aligns to the NFL definitions that are part of the basis of the star rating system.

It might help to read this article as well as the first article I linked at the top of this article.

Top NFL Draft Prospects- Adjusted Rating (larrythegm.com)