On 7/12/24, the Astros had just beaten the Rangers to climb to only one game behind the Mariners in the division.
The Astros had been on fire for the previous four weeks (the time AFTER Abreu was released):
Record: 19-6 (50-44 Overall- 1 GB the Mariners)
Hitting: 117 wRC+ (5th) / 0.770 OPS (7th)
Pitching: 100 FIP- (14th) / 3.73 ERA (7th)
Playoff Probability: 65.9%
The Astros were on fire!
Then, the Rangers took the final two games before the All-Star break. We may not have known it then, but the Astros cooled off that weekend and have been average since.
From 7/13 to 8/8:
Record: 9-11 (59-55 Overall- 0.5 Games UP in 1st place)
Hitting: 89 wRC+ (24th) / 0.670 OPS (25th)
Pitching: 103 FIP- (13th) / 3.48 ERA (3rd)
Playoff Probability: 62.7%
Per Fangraphs.com here are the Astros Playoff Probabilities this season
The pitching has been great from an ERA standpoint, but the batting has been terrible since the weekend before the All-Star break. The batting that had been so hot the previous four weeks has crashed.
Why have the bats been slumping so bad lately and what options do the Astros have to improve the lineup? Clearly, they are missing Tucker's bat. Beyond Tucker, let's go player-by-player and see who has crashed with the Astros team batting.
Since 7/13/24 Here are the batter's grades
A- Great
Diaz has been excellent vs. LHP and RHP. His BABIP has been unsustainably high. Moderation is coming.
Alvarez has been excellent as well.
Caratini has been excellent too in a part time role. His BABIP is also unsustainably high.
B- Above Average
Altuve has been hitting like a slightly above average hitter. He has hit far better vs. LHP than he has vs. RHP.
C- OK
Bregman has hit 82 wRC+ while he has a 0.343 xwOBA. This should not be possible and is only because his BABIP is only 0.232 over the 87 PA.
Pena has been OK and unusually better vs. RHP than LHP.
D- Platoon Only- these two are only viable in platoon situations right now
Singleton has reached unplayable status vs. LHP in the past three weeks. He has been OK vs. RHP.
Similarly, McCormick has been terrible vs. RHP but good vs. LHP.
F- Bad and Unlucky
Meyers has hit 39 wRC+ since 7/13. Meyers has hit 0.285 xwOBA which would estimate more like an 85 wRC+. His BABIP of 0.212 illustrates the disconnect. Meyers has been more unlucky than terrible.
One might argue that Dubon has been both unlucky (0.160 BABIP) and Bad (15 wRC+, 0.243 xwOBA). His playing time has been reduced dramatically because he has been nearly unplayable.
Cabbage was sent back to AAA when Dezenzo was called up because he is unplayable vs. LHP and has been terrible in limited PA vs. RHP. His 9 wRC+ and 0.181 xwOBA have to be causing the organization to question if he still deserves a 40-man roster spot.
Zero- Because there has to be a grade worse than F
Aledmys Diaz has been with the Astros since 7/22/24
He has started one game at 1B which he did not finish
He has one PH appearance
He has 4 PA total- no hits and 2 strikeouts
He has played 9 innings of defense- 8 at 1B, 1 at 2B
The Astros have played 15 games and 133.2 innings of defense.
He is so bad that Espada refuses to use him
Why is Aledmys Diaz on the Astros? They are basically playing with a roster of 25 players every night.
This is the hitting environment the Astros have had since 7/13/24. It is bad.
In case you think that Joey Loperfido would have made things better in this time, his wRC+ with the Blue Jays is estimated at only 14 wRC+ after tonight.
What does it all mean?
Since right before the All-Star Break, the Astros have:
Three Great hitters - two of whom are the team's catchers
Three OK hitters
Two hitters that count only as one because they are only viable in their platoon
Four hitters that are on the different levels of purgatory to deepest hell as far as helping the offense
Now can you see how the offense that was the team strength is failing Houston?
Here is the challenge, what can the Astros do about the batting slump since the trade deadline has passed and what are the options for help from the minor leagues?
Well, the Astros have already called for Pedro Leon and Zach Dezenzo. Let's look at a similar set of data for all of the potential options in Sugar Land.
Several of these options are raking in both wRC+ and xwOBA in the hitter friendly PCL including Hummel, Whitcomb, and Kessinger.
In this case however, we will focus on how the various options PROJECT to produce (last two columns) in the Fangraphs Depth Chart (FGDC- black font) or the Steamers Projections (red font.) Steamers was used when there was no FGDC.
The projections tell us a more challenging narrative.
Hummel, Dezenzo, Hamilton could be competitive hitters - 86-93 wRC+.
Whitcomb, Bastidas, and Salazar are a notch below this -82-84 wRC+.
Leon and Amaya are another notch possibly below those- 79-80 wRC+.
Kessinger is probably not viable as an MLB hitter currently.
The biggest takeaway from this is that the projections algorithms do not project ANY one from the minors nor Leon nor Dezenzo as a HUGE positive in the offense.
However, if the bar for bringing in one of these players is to replace Aledmys Diaz, then I would say Hummel, Hamilton, and Whitcomb are ALL candidates to help the offense off the bench. For my lineup, I will assume that is Whitcomb.
Here is how I would set the lineups for the Astros. For the LHP platoon, I show two lineup alternatives; and for the RHP platoon, I show three lineup alternatives. This reflects the cascading effect of the catcher deployment and Dubon vs. Leon options.
In short, these lineups would have players play to their strengths or at least test those for the younger players. By definition, this means there is NOT a simple one lineup solution.
Will this FIX the Astros batting? It might help, but success really hinges on Tucker returning.
I will also say this. Expect the Astros to monitor transactions for players that would be a low-cost upgrade over Leon, Whitcomb, and others THIS YEAR.
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