Get ready for the 2024 College Football Season with Preview and Predictions for the SEC. Who exceeds expectations and who fails. What teams will make the CFP? Check out the detailed season predictions!
The 2024 season will be a whole new world for college football fans. One and maybe even two losses will not ruin your team's chances to make the new 12-team College Football Playoff.
Over the next two days we will go conference by conference to give you my predictions for how each team will end the season and the detail for every team vying to be in the top 25 and ultimately in the CFP.
First up is the SEC - the new home of my Texas Longhorns.
I have created a system to generate projections for every team given their schedule and relative team strengths. I will also create an index post for you to access everything from. Here are links to the other FBS Conferences. (Added when published).
Here is my prediction for the final SEC standings in 2024. In these conference standings I have also added the Vegas Over/ Under Win totals for you to compare to.
Georgia wins the conference going 12-0. Then, there is chaos in a four-way tie for second at 11-1.
I think Georgia beats Alabama and Texas.
I think Texas loses to Georgia and does not play the others.
I think Alabama loses to Georgia and then beats Missouri and LSU.
I think Missouri loses to Alabama and does not play the others.
I think LSU loses to Alabama and does not play the others.
I will admit I don't know how the tiebreaker would work if all of that happened. I am putting Texas in the SEC Championship game because I want to.
Now let's give you the game-by-game projected results for each team I think will make the final CFP committee top 25 and others that are ranked in the AP Top 25 now.
In these detailed season predictions, for each game you can see:
The opponent
Home / Away / or neutral site
Whether the opponent is a Power 2, Mid 2, Group of 5, or FCS or below opponent.
The preseason over/under projected by Vegas for each opponent
My projected point spread for the game. You can use this as a guide for action if you want.
I have a home field advantage built into my model prediction.
I will periodically post the actual results in these tables on the right.
For the season you can see
The Projected Win total of that team's opponents by adding the over/ under for each opponent. This is like a traditional Strength of Schedule.
A WEIGHTED Projected Win total that factors in also the level of each opponent. This is my Strength of Schedule
A season projected win-loss prediction
The SEC fans will probably appreciate this for properly framing the gauntlet that is an SEC season (at least in their opinion.) I KNOW ACC and Big 12 fans will hate this. I know it is a simplification to correct for teams that schedule a lot of lower division cupcakes. They will hate when I told them that the SEC and B1G will have between 7 to 9 teams in the CFP every year. Don't hate the messenger because you don't like the message.
For the CCG and CFP teams I also show the projected post regular season games including their projected CFP Seeding.
Sometimes the projected point spread is less than one. In these cases, I gave the win to team even if the margin was +0.1.
Missouri - #11 CFP Standings / Not in CFP
Ole Miss - #12 CFP Standings / Not in CFP
Texas A&M - #15 CFP Standings / Not in CFP
Get ready Aggies. This system thinks you are going to have THREE games decided by a single point.
Tennessee - #17 CFP Standings / Not in CFP
Oklahoma - NR in CFP Standings / Not in CFP - Included since #16 Now
The Sooners have a BRUTAL schedule and project to lose a lot of games close. If they exceed expectations by 4 points a game, they could end up 11-1. It is that close.
So, leave a comment on your bold predictions for your SEC team in the comments below,
Coming soon here at LarryTheGM
My predictions for the full top 25
My CFP Predictions
Conference-by-conference season standing predictions for the other conferences.
Altogether, you will have predictions for the entire FBS
Data from ESPN, Pro Football Focus, Vegas Insiders, NCAA.com
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