Why do I focus on xwOBA and BABIP and Projected Stats so much?
Because the teams do
Today's case study- Joey Loperfido
Stat and rank on the Astros
OPS 0.817 4th
wOBA 0.363 3rd
wRC+ 137 3rd
OPS+ 137 3rd
xwOBA 0.304 9th (Below League Average - 0.309)
BABIP 0.571 1st (EXTREMELY LUCKY)
Projected ROS wRC+
Abreu 102
Loperfido 95
YOU may demand that you know what is and will happen. The advanced algorithms do not agree with you.... at least not yet.
Please remember over 2023-2024 that Joey Loperfido is hitting 114 wRC+ in AAA (260 PA). That would make an MLB projection of 90-95 EXTREMELY REASONABLE.
Loperfido got a taste. He knows the things he needs to work on. He may not be down long if Abreu is who you think he is.
Don't discount the franchise desire to optimize his service time too.
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