Unlock the game within the game with the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Twins. Get in-depth batting, pitching, and expected stats analysis.
These will be a series-by-series installment for the Premium subscribers on the LarryTheGM site or for all of the Patreon subscribers.
The data here is NOW 2023-2024 Hybrid data (from both years.) This is a massive update. Data is from Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, and baseballreference.com.
I will do a video of the series here. I will have to do it post game folks.
Current Team Status
The Astros have been a disappointment early. They need to win and win a lot to gain ground.
Bating Lineups Comparison
This table compares the offenses of the two teams by each spot in their projected typical batting orders.
Data is shown here is for three time periods
The projected data forward- including the LGM grade for that projection
2024 Actual data- this highlights the players who have over and underachieved this year.
Hybrid 2023-2024 Actual data- this mutes some of the early struggles and contextualizes the projected data.
The current Astros lineup projects to hit 120 wRC+ the rest of 2024 and is hitting 112 so far. The current Twins lineup projects to hit 109 wRC+ and is hitting 102 so far.
Pitching Staff Comparison
The Astros projected to pitch 4.09 FIP for the rest of 2024 and have pitched to a 4.26 FIP so far. The Twins projected to pitch 3.80 FIP for the rest of 2024 and have pitched to a 3.79 FIP so far.
The Astros have SEVERAL pitchers that are at D or worse production so far (using FIP- as the metric.) They have a few RPs that are at the top of the MLB.
You can see how the starting and relief pitchers have fared so far.
Expected Stats (xwOBA) Tables - by Pitch Type and Platoon
These tables form the basis of my MoneyMaker matchups. One can follow the action and see what pitches the pitchers throw well and what pitches the hitter hit well.
This data unlocks the game within the game. It comes from the data provided from Baseball Savant. This data will change how you watch baseball if you really understand it.
Here are the UPDATED HYBRID xwOBA tables. N/A in these tables indicates where the database has less than 10 PA of data. These will be areas I would have to make assumptions or pull MiLB data for the MoneyMaker Analysis.
First, I give you the Astros Data.
Notice how the Astros batters are better vs. fastballs than they are breaking and off-speed pitches.
The beauty of this data is you can see the relative strengths and weaknesses of the hitter and pitcher and then understand why certain players are pitched the way they are and why substitutions are made.
Don't get lost in the numbers too much. Pay attention to the heatmap color if that helps.
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