Unlock the game within the game with the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Tigers. Get in-depth batting, pitching, and expected stats analysis.
These will be a series-by-series installment for the Premium subscribers on the LarryTheGM site or for all of the Patreon subscribers.
I will do a short video of the series here. Please watch here at 1:00PM.
Please watch as I will provide more observations from the data here.
I want to apologize for not getting this out yesterday. It was a busy day with the huge news.
Here is the series guide I owe you with some bonus Abreu coverage.
NEWS: The Astros released Jose Abreu yesterday.
This ends a very challenging and disappointing saga for the Astros and Abreu. We do wish him the best.
The DAY BEFORE this happened, I had written this about the Abreu situation.
"I think ultimately the answer is when Jim Crane sees that the Astros stubborn commitment to a bad decision is costing him more by lost fan interest and that his team is truly suffering, THEN he will move on from Jose Abreu no matter what the cost.
I think we are far closer to that day than we might believe."
I think here are some important quotes:
Regarding Singleton
Regarding Loperfido
Regarding the 2022-23 Horrible Offseason
Folks, no matter what ANYONE tells you, you are not wasting your time here. You are helping yourself be one of the best-informed Astros fans in the world.
Not by rumor or sources
By Objective analysis
There is big news for Today's game
Arrighetti is starting Saturday. I assume Blanco on Sunday.
Once Again, thank you for supporting this site and helping us exist.
Now, let me give you the series guide you deserve.
Current Team Status
Bating Lineups Comparison
This table compares the offenses of the two teams by each spot in their projected typical batting orders.
The current Astros lineup projects to hit 118 wRC+ the rest of the season and is hitting 111 so far. The current Tigers lineup projects to hit 102 wRC+ the rest of the season and is hitting 91 so far.
We have talked a lot about the Astros offense with RISP. Here is the current status and the June data.
Pitching Staff Comparison
The Astros are projected to pitch 4.09 FIP for the rest of 2024 and have pitched to a 4.26 FIP so far. The Tigers are projected to pitch 3.93 FIP for the rest of 2024 and have pitched to a 3.62 FIP so far.
You can see how the starting and relief pitchers have fared so far.
Expected Stats (xwOBA) Tables - by Pitch Type and Platoon
These tables form the basis of my MoneyMaker matchups. One can follow the action and see what pitches the pitchers throw well and what pitches the hitter hit well.
This data unlocks the game within the game. It comes from the data provided from Baseball Savant. This data will change how you watch baseball if you really understand it.
First, I give you the Astros Data.
For Singleton, I have updated this database to reflect a hybrid of 2023-2024 MLB and AAA (w/ 80% factor). I think it is FAR more reflective of how the Astros are using Singleton. I still need to update this, but the data is close.
For Kessinger, Loperfido, and Cabbage; I have updated this data based on AAA data from 2023-2024 with my 80% factor. Therefore, a AAA xwOBA of 0.400 is reduced to project it to an MLB xwOBA of 0.320. I still need to update this, but the data is close.
For Arrighetti, I have updated this data based on AAA data from 2023-2024 with my 120% factor. Therefore, a AAA xwOBA of 0.300 is factored to project it to an MLB xwOBA of 0.360. I still need to update this, but the data is close.
Astros Batters vs. LHP
Astros Batters vs. RHP
Notice how the Astros batters are better vs. fastballs than they are breaking and off-speed pitches.
Astros Pitching vs. LHH
Astros Pitching vs. RHH
Opponent Batters vs. LHP
Opponent Batters vs. RHP
Opponent Pitching vs. LHH
Opponent Pitching vs. RHH
The beauty of this data is you can see the relative strengths and weaknesses of the hitter and pitcher and then understand why certain players are pitched the way they are and why substitutions are made.
Don't get lost in the numbers too much. Pay attention to the heatmap color if that helps.
Basic Rules
Red is good for that player.
Blue is not good.
Average xwOBA set at 0.319.
The hitter and pitcher data gets cross referenced to produce the MoneyMaker Astros Daily Lineup Analysis that could be used to get an edge for your fantasy baseball teams.
Also check out the MoneyMaker: Astros Daily Lineup Analysis here for tonight's game. Video after the lineups are released.
Data Description
Batting Data- 2023
This data shows for each batter the pitch mix they faced vs. LHP and RHP.
Then the data show how each batter performed vs. that type of pitch as shown by xwOBA data.
xwOBA is used because we are trying to understand the quality of the contact they had vs. each pitch - velocity, launch angle, etc.- and are less focused on the actual luck impacted result.
Under the total section
One can see how many total pitches that batter faced vs. the LHP/ RHP.
I have supplied all of the data available.
HOWEVER, if a player has less than 200 total pitches in a data set, I would be very careful and definitely focus more on the total and less on the pitch type data. These lines are formatted in yellow.
These lines are formatted in yellow.
For the Astros this impacts analysis for Singleton and Kessinger.
Similarly, off-speed pitch data is less robust as well for the same sample size issue.
One can then see how the batter performed overall.
xwOBA
wOBA- this shows how the actual performance compared to predicted performance.
This in essence captures the luck aspects of their 2023 season. A batter with a wOBA 0.030 higher than their xwOBA was lucky in 2023.
In some case there is no data, or it is marked N/A. These happen for rookie pitchers where the is no 2023 data or where Baseball Savant does not have data for that pitch type.
Pitching Data- 2023
This data shows for each pitcher the pitch mix they throw vs. LHH and RHH.
Then the data show how each pitch performed with that type of pitch as shown by xwOBA data.
xwOBA is used because we are trying to understand the quality of the contact hitters had against them for each pitch - velocity, launch angle, etc.- and are less focused on the actual luck impacted result.
Under the total section
One can see how many total pitches that pitcher threw vs. the LHH/ RHH.
I have supplied all of the data available.
HOWEVER, if a player has less than 200 total pitches in a data set, I would be very careful and definitely focus more on the total and less on the pitch type data.
These lines are formatted in yellow.
For the Astros this impacts analysis for Mushinski, Hader vs. LHH, and Scott vs. LHH
Similarly, off-speed pitch data is less robust as well for the same sample size issue. If a player has less than 10% of a pitch type, consider this a warning. This impacts MANY pitchers.
One can then see how the pitcher performed overall.
xwOBA
wOBA- this shows how the actual performance compared to predicted performance.
This in essence captures the luck aspects of their 2023 season. A pitcher with a wOBA 0.030 lower than their xwOBA was lucky in 2023.
In some case there is no data, or it is marked N/A. These happen for rookie pitchers where the is no 2023 data or where Baseball Savant does not have data for that pitch type.
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