Unlock the game within the game with the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Tigers. Get in-depth batting, pitching, and expected stats analysis.
These will be a series-by-series installment for the Premium subscribers on the LarryTheGM site or for all of the Patreon subscribers.
I will do a short video at 5:00 of the series here.
Breaking News
The Big Picture - WAR Rankings- PRESEASON
The Astros project to have the third ranked offense, and the Tigers project to be the 22nd ranked bats.
The Astros project to have the seventh ranked pitching group and the Tigers project to be the 24th best mound crew.
Overall, the Astros project to have the third highest WAR, and the Tigers project to deliver the 25th highest WAR.
WAR by Positions
Overall, the Astros are projected to be 13-14 WAR better than the Tigers.
Each team has advantages over the other when reviewed position-by-position.
Current Team Status
The Astros have been a huge disappointment early. The Tigers are overcoming multiple challenges with a surprisingly good pitching so far.
You can see how the teams compare in wRC+, OPS, FIP-, and ERA for this year and last year.
Bating Lineups Comparison
This table compares the offenses of the two teams by each spot in their projected typical batting orders.
The current Astros lineup projects to hit 117 wRC+ and is hitting 111 so far. The current Tigers lineup projects to hit 100 wRC+ and is hitting 90 so far.
What is wrong with the Astros Offense? This Graphic tells the story.
The Astros are a bad hitting team with RISP in 2024 relative to other situations. They were a great hitting team with RISP in 2023.
The biggest negative delta here is Altuve. I love Altuve, but there may be an approach issue here.
Alvarez is also VERY concerning here. The career 169 wRC+ with RISP is not himself but his 0.143 BABIP is unsustainably low.
Pitching Staff Comparison
The Astros projected to pitch 4.20 FIP in 2024 and have pitched to a 4.70 FIP so far. The Tigers projected to pitch 4.23 FIP in 2024 but have pitched to a 3.64 FIP so far.
You can see how the starting and relief pitchers have fared so far.
The Tigers and Astros have some significant ERA to FIP disconnects.
Here are the Astros pitchers sorted by FIP minus ERA gap. You can see as a general rule, that the unsustainably low BABIP pitchers align with those who have FIP higher than their ERAs. In my view, these have generally been lucky.
Notice the players in green. Their ERAs are all SIGNIFICANTLY higher than the FIPs. Their BABIPs are all UNSUSTAINABLE HIGH. Brown, Pressly, Hader, Dubin, and Arrighetti all SHOULD be better.
This table is sorted by FIP. The most worrisome pitchers on this list are:
Verlander whose ERA is 1.64 below his 6.07 FIP
Abreu whose ERA is if anything too low compared to a 5.61 FIP.
Montero whose ERA is if anything too low compared to a 5.65 FIP. His BABIP is reflecting he has been VERY lucky.
Also Scott, Martinez, Blanco, and Javier all have similar FIPs higher than their ERAs.
Expected Stats (xwOBA) Tables - by Pitch Type and Platoon
These tables form the basis of my MoneyMaker matchups. One can follow the action and see what pitches the pitchers throw well and what pitches the hitter hit well.
This data unlocks the game within the game. It comes from the data provided from Baseball Savant. This data will change how you watch baseball if you really understand it.
First, I give you the Astros Data.
For Singleton, I have updated this database to reflect a hybrid of 2023-2024 MLB and AAA (w/ 80% factor). I think it is FAR more reflective of how the Astros are using Singleton.
For Kessinger, Loperfido, and Cabbage; I have updated this data based on AAA data from 2023-2024 with my 80% factor. Therefore, a AAA xwOBA of 0.400 is reduced to project it to an MLB xwOBA of 0.320.
For Arrighetti, I have updated this data based on AAA data from 2023-2024 with my 120% factor. Therefore, a AAA xwOBA of 0.300 is factored to project it to an MLB xwOBA of 0.360.
Astros Batters vs. LHP
Astros Batters vs. RHP
Notice how the Astros batters are better vs. fastballs than they are breaking and off-speed pitches.
Astros Pitching vs. LHH
Astros Pitching vs. RHH
Opponent Batters vs. LHP
Opponent Batters vs. RHP
Opponent Pitching vs. LHH
Opponent Pitching vs. RHH
The beauty of this data is you can see the relative strengths and weaknesses of the hitter and pitcher and then understand why certain players are pitched the way they are and why substitutions are made.
Don't get lost in the numbers too much. Pay attention to the heatmap color if that helps.
Basic Rules
Red is good for that player.
Blue is not good.
Average xwOBA set at 0.319.
The hitter and pitcher data gets cross referenced to produce the MoneyMaker Astros Daily Lineup Analysis that could be used to get an edge for your fantasy baseball teams.
Also check out the MoneyMaker: Astros Daily Lineup Analysis here for tonight's game. Video after the lineups are released.
Data Description
Batting Data- 2023
This data shows for each batter the pitch mix they faced vs. LHP and RHP.
Then the data show how each batter performed vs. that type of pitch as shown by xwOBA data.
xwOBA is used because we are trying to understand the quality of the contact they had vs. each pitch - velocity, launch angle, etc.- and are less focused on the actual luck impacted result.
Under the total section
One can see how many total pitches that batter faced vs. the LHP/ RHP.
I have supplied all of the data available.
HOWEVER, if a player has less than 200 total pitches in a data set, I would be very careful and definitely focus more on the total and less on the pitch type data. These lines are formatted in yellow.
These lines are formatted in yellow.
For the Astros this impacts analysis for Singleton and Kessinger.
Similarly, off-speed pitch data is less robust as well for the same sample size issue.
One can then see how the batter performed overall.
xwOBA
wOBA- this shows how the actual performance compared to predicted performance.
This in essence captures the luck aspects of their 2023 season. A batter with a wOBA 0.030 higher than their xwOBA was lucky in 2023.
In some case there is no data, or it is marked N/A. These happen for rookie pitchers where the is no 2023 data or where Baseball Savant does not have data for that pitch type.
Pitching Data- 2023
This data shows for each pitcher the pitch mix they throw vs. LHH and RHH.
Then the data show how each pitch performed with that type of pitch as shown by xwOBA data.
xwOBA is used because we are trying to understand the quality of the contact hitters had against them for each pitch - velocity, launch angle, etc.- and are less focused on the actual luck impacted result.
Under the total section
One can see how many total pitches that pitcher threw vs. the LHH/ RHH.
I have supplied all of the data available.
HOWEVER, if a player has less than 200 total pitches in a data set, I would be very careful and definitely focus more on the total and less on the pitch type data.
These lines are formatted in yellow.
For the Astros this impacts analysis for Mushinski, Hader vs. LHH, and Scott vs. LHH
Similarly, off-speed pitch data is less robust as well for the same sample size issue. If a player has less than 10% of a pitch type, consider this a warning. This impacts MANY pitchers.
One can then see how the pitcher performed overall.
xwOBA
wOBA- this shows how the actual performance compared to predicted performance.
This in essence captures the luck aspects of their 2023 season. A pitcher with a wOBA 0.030 lower than their xwOBA was lucky in 2023.
In some case there is no data, or it is marked N/A. These happen for rookie pitchers where the is no 2023 data or where Baseball Savant does not have data for that pitch type.
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