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Writer's pictureLarryTheGM

Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Royals 4/9- 4/11

Unlock the game within the game with the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Royals. Get in-depth batting, pitching, and expected stats analysis.

These will be a series-by-series installment for the Premium subscribers on the LarryTheGM site or for all of the Patreon subscribers.


The Astros played three of the best teams in the American league including the 2023 World Series Champion Rangers. They have gotten off to a difficult start for many Astros fans. I have addressed the fan base's fears twice already.


Mythbusters



Mind Blowing


Now the Astros go to Kansas City to face the Royals who weren't supposed to be very good, but their starting pitching has helped them surprise early.


The Big Picture - WAR Rankings

WAR Rankings

The Astros project to have the third ranked offense, and the Royals project to be the 24th ranked bats.


The Astros project to have the seventh ranked pitching group and the Royals project to be the 26th best mound crew.


Overall, the Astros project to have the third highest WAR, and the Royals project to deliver the 26th highest WAR.


WAR by Positions

Positional WAR Rankings

These two teams are at opposite ends of the MLB projected talent spectrum. Here are a few difference makers:

  • Second Base- Altuve the Great

  • Shortstop- Witt Jr. is an early star for the Royals.

  • Third Base- Bregman is an All-Star

  • Left Field- McCormick / Alvarez combo eclipses Royals.

  • Right Field- Tucker is an All-Star

  • Designated Hitter- Alvarez and others dominate.

  • Starting Pitching- Astros significant advantage

  • Relief Pitching- Astros projected advantage.

Overall, the Astros have about a 15 WAR advantage.


Current Team Status

Astros Royals Current

The Astros have the number four wRC+ hitting team in 2024 at 123. All of the three teams ahead of the Astros have elevated BABIPs (0.324 to 0.366).


The Royals have the third best team by FIP-.


Bating Lineups Comparison


This table compares the offenses of the two teams by each spot in their projected typical batting orders.


Astros Royals Batting

The current Astros lineup projects to hit 117 wRC+ and is hitting 123 so far. The current Royals lineup projects to hit 100 wRC+ and is hitting 1.07 so far.


Abreu Done?

Abreu needs to find his swing after a good spring. I wrote about Abreu today.






Pitching Staff Comparison


This table compares the pitching of the two teams by each role on their staff.

Astros Royals Pitching

The Astros projected to pitch 4.20 FIP in 2024 and have pitched to a 4.25 FIP so far. The Royals projected to pitch 4.47 FIP in 2024 but have pitched to a 3.21 FIP so far.


Both teams have had better SP than RP.

Pitching Detail

The Royals starters have been incredibly GREAT.


Expected Stats (xwOBA) Tables - by Pitch Type and Platoon


These tables form the basis of my MoneyMaker matchups. One can follow the action and see what pitches the pitchers throw well and what pitches the hitter hit well.


This data unlocks the game within the game. It comes from the data provided from Baseball Savant. This data will change how you watch baseball if you really understand it.



First, I give you the Astros Data.


Astros Batters vs. LHP

Astros vs. LHP

Astros Batters vs. RHP

Astros vs. RHP

Astros Pitching vs. LHH

Astros vs. LHH

Astros Pitching vs. RHH

Astros vs. RHH

Royals Batters vs. LHP

Royals vs. LHP

Royals Batters vs. RHP

Royals vs. RHP

Royals Pitching vs. LHH

Royals vs. LHH

Royals Pitching vs. RHH

Royals vs. RHH

The beauty of this data is you can see the relative strengths and weaknesses of the hitter and pitcher and then understand why certain players are pitched the way they are and why substitutions are made.


Don't get lost in the numbers too much. Pay attention to the heatmap color if that helps.


Basic Rules

  • Red is good for that player.

  • Blue is not good.

  • Average xwOBA set at 0.319.

The hitter and pitcher data gets cross referenced to produce the MoneyMaker Astros Daily Lineup Analysis that could be used to get an edge for your fantasy baseball teams.


Also check out the MoneyMaker: Astros Daily Lineup Analysis here for tonight's game. Video after the lineups are released.



Data Description


Batting Data- 2023


  • This data shows for each batter the pitch mix they faced vs. LHP and RHP.

  • Then the data show how each batter performed vs. that type of pitch as shown by xwOBA data.

    • xwOBA is used because we are trying to understand the quality of the contact they had vs. each pitch - velocity, launch angle, etc.- and are less focused on the actual luck impacted result.

  • Under the total section

    • One can see how many total pitches that batter faced vs. the LHP/ RHP.

      • I have supplied all of the data available.

      • HOWEVER, if a player has less than 200 total pitches in a data set, I would be very careful and definitely focus more on the total and less on the pitch type data. These lines are formatted in yellow.

        • These lines are formatted in yellow.

        • For the Astros this impacts analysis for Singleton and Kessinger.

      • Similarly, off-speed pitch data is less robust as well for the same sample size issue.

    • One can then see how the batter performed overall.

      • xwOBA

      • wOBA- this shows how the actual performance compared to predicted performance.

      • This in essence captures the luck aspects of their 2023 season. A batter with a wOBA 0.030 higher than their xwOBA was lucky in 2023.

  • In some case there is no data, or it is marked N/A. These happen for rookie pitchers where the is no 2023 data or where Baseball Savant does not have data for that pitch type.

Pitching Data- 2023


  • This data shows for each pitcher the pitch mix they throw vs. LHH and RHH.

  • Then the data show how each pitch performed with that type of pitch as shown by xwOBA data.

    • xwOBA is used because we are trying to understand the quality of the contact hitters had against them for each pitch - velocity, launch angle, etc.- and are less focused on the actual luck impacted result.

  • Under the total section

    • One can see how many total pitches that pitcher threw vs. the LHH/ RHH.

      • I have supplied all of the data available.

      • HOWEVER, if a player has less than 200 total pitches in a data set, I would be very careful and definitely focus more on the total and less on the pitch type data.

        • These lines are formatted in yellow.

        • For the Astros this impacts analysis for Mushinski, Hader vs. LHH, and Scott vs. LHH

      • Similarly, off-speed pitch data is less robust as well for the same sample size issue. If a player has less than 10% of a pitch type, consider this a warning. This impacts MANY pitchers.

    • One can then see how the pitcher performed overall.

      • xwOBA

      • wOBA- this shows how the actual performance compared to predicted performance.

      • This in essence captures the luck aspects of their 2023 season. A pitcher with a wOBA 0.030 lower than their xwOBA was lucky in 2023.

  • In some case there is no data, or it is marked N/A. These happen for rookie pitchers where the is no 2023 data or where Baseball Savant does not have data for that pitch type.


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