Unlock the game within the game with the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Rangers. Get in-depth batting, pitching, and expected stats analysis.
These will be a series-by-series installment for the Premium subscribers on the LarryTheGM site or for all of the Patreon subscribers.
I made the video integrated with the MoneyMaker Data so you can see how the two look at the same basic data and how the Premium member can do a little work on their own to see how a matchup could go.
Please watch it here
Both the Astros and the Rangers are very good hitting teams. The Astros are projected to be a far better pitching team than the Rangers. Both pitching staffs have massive injuries.
The Big Picture - WAR Rankings
The Astros project to have the third ranked offense, and the Rangers project to be the sixth ranked bats.
The Astros project to have the seventh ranked pitching group and the Rangers project to be the twentieth best mound crew.
Overall, the Astros project to have the third highest WAR, and the Rangers project to deliver the tenth highest WAR.
WAR by Positions
These two teams have All-Star quality all over the field. Here are a few difference makers:
Shortstop- Seager is GREAT.
Third Base- Bregman is an All-Star
Right Field- Tucker is an All-Star
Designated Hitter- Alvarez is an All-Star
Starting Pitching- Valdez and Brown are pluses.
Relief Pitching- Top three Astros are definite advantage.
Overall, the Astros have about a 5 WAR advantage.
Current Team Status
Please check out the Astros Weekly Recap to see a bunch of what is likely to be very surprising data that shows the panic over the Astros is exaggerated.
Bating Lineups Comparison
This table compares the offenses of the two teams by each spot in their projected typical batting orders.
Two quality offenses and you can see how the two teams have done so far.
The current Astros lineup projects to hit 117 wRC+. The current Rangers line projects to hit 109 wRC+.
Abreu is in a major slump to start the season. Clint and I discussed this also on the Astros Weekly Recap.
Pitching Staff Comparison
This table compares the pitching of the two teams by each role on their staff.
The Astros projected to pitch 4.20 FIP in 2024 and the Rangers projected to pitch 4.44 FIP in 2024.
The Astros have several pitchers really struggling early.
The Astros have ELEVEN pitchers on the IL. This is a HUGE challenge.
Here is a breakdown of the teams by starters and relievers.
As the Astros start this series their bullpen is completely taxes. They called up Joel Kuhnel and Wander Suero was just DFAed to create the 40-man roster spot for Kuhnel.
Expected Stats (xwOBA) Tables - by Pitch Type and Platoon
These tables form the basis of my MoneyMaker matchups. One can follow the action and see what pitches the pitchers throw well and what pitches the hitter hit well.
This data unlocks the game within the game. It comes from the data provided from Baseball Savant. This data will change how you watch baseball if you really understand it.
Please see the data description below.
First, I give you the Astros Data.
Astros Batters vs. LHP
Astros Batters vs. RHP
Astros Pitching vs. LHH
Astros Pitching vs. RHH
Rangers Batters vs. LHP
Rangers Batters vs. RHP
Rangers Pitching vs. LHH
Rangers Pitching vs. RHH
The beauty of this data is you can see the relative strengths and weaknesses of the hitter and pitcher and then understand why certain players are pitched the way they are and why substitutions are made.
Don't get lost in the numbers too much. Pay attention to the heatmap color if that helps.
Basic Rules
Red is good for that player.
Blue is not good.
Average xwOBA set at 0.319.
The hitter and pitcher data gets cross referenced to produce the MoneyMaker Astros Daily Lineup Analysis that could be used to get an edge for your fantasy baseball teams.
Also check out the MoneyMaker: Astros Daily Lineup Analysis here for tonight's game. Video after the lineups are released.
Data Description
Batting Data- 2023
This data shows for each batter the pitch mix they faced vs. LHP and RHP.
Then the data show how each batter performed vs. that type of pitch as shown by xwOBA data.
xwOBA is used because we are trying to understand the quality of the contact they had vs. each pitch - velocity, launch angle, etc.- and are less focused on the actual luck impacted result.
Under the total section
One can see how many total pitches that batter faced vs. the LHP/ RHP.
I have supplied all of the data available.
HOWEVER, if a player has less than 200 total pitches in a data set, I would be very careful and definitely focus more on the total and less on the pitch type data. These lines are formatted in yellow.
These lines are formatted in yellow.
For the Astros this impacts analysis for Singleton and Kessinger.
Similarly, off-speed pitch data is less robust as well for the same sample size issue.
One can then see how the batter performed overall.
xwOBA
wOBA- this shows how the actual performance compared to predicted performance.
This in essence captures the luck aspects of their 2023 season. A batter with a wOBA 0.030 higher than their xwOBA was lucky in 2023.
In some case there is no data, or it is marked N/A. These happen for rookie pitchers where the is no 2023 data or where Baseball Savant does not have data for that pitch type.
Pitching Data- 2023
This data shows for each pitcher the pitch mix they throw vs. LHH and RHH.
Then the data show how each pitch performed with that type of pitch as shown by xwOBA data.
xwOBA is used because we are trying to understand the quality of the contact hitters had against them for each pitch - velocity, launch angle, etc.- and are less focused on the actual luck impacted result.
Under the total section
One can see how many total pitches that pitcher threw vs. the LHH/ RHH.
I have supplied all of the data available.
HOWEVER, if a player has less than 200 total pitches in a data set, I would be very careful and definitely focus more on the total and less on the pitch type data.
These lines are formatted in yellow.
For the Astros this impacts analysis for Mushinski, Hader vs. LHH, and Scott vs. LHH
Similarly, off-speed pitch data is less robust as well for the same sample size issue. If a player has less than 10% of a pitch type, consider this a warning. This impacts MANY pitchers.
One can then see how the pitcher performed overall.
xwOBA
wOBA- this shows how the actual performance compared to predicted performance.
This in essence captures the luck aspects of their 2023 season. A pitcher with a wOBA 0.030 lower than their xwOBA was lucky in 2023.
In some case there is no data, or it is marked N/A. These happen for rookie pitchers where the is no 2023 data or where Baseball Savant does not have data for that pitch type.
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