Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Guardians- 4/30- 5/2

This is being released for everyone to celebrate Loperfido day!

Unlock the game within the game with the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Guardians. Get in-depth batting, pitching, and expected stats analysis.

These will be a series-by-series installment for the Premium subscribers on the LarryTheGM site or for all of the Patreon subscribers.

I will do a video at 6:00 of the series here.

Astros Series with the Guardians - BONUS - Loperfido Day Celebration!! (youtube.com)

Bonus: I will give you the MoneyMaker Data! I will give you a few minutes on Loperfido and the other moves the Astros make.

The Big Picture - WAR Rankings

The Astros project to have the third ranked offense, and the Guardians project to be the 10th ranked bats.

The Astros project to have the seventh ranked pitching group and the Guardians project to be the 18th best mound crew.

Overall, the Astros project to have the third highest WAR, and the Guardians project to deliver the 15th highest WAR.

WAR by Positions

Overall, the Astros have about a 7 Projected WAR advantage.

Current Team Status

The Astros have been a huge disappointment early. The Guardians are one of the MLB's overachievers.

You can see how the teams compare in wRC+, OPS, FIP-, and ERA for this year and last year.

Bating Lineups Comparison

This table compares the offenses of the two teams by each spot in their projected typical batting orders.

Loperfido is being called up. Cabbage reported went back to Sugar Land. I have left the roster options in the table.

Read about what we can expect with Loperfido here.

Read about Cabbage here.

At 2:31PM Chandler Rome posted this https://x.com/Chandler_Rome/status/1785391433001615415

There were rumors swirling of other moves that did not happen. Well, now they just did.

https://x.com/Chandler_Rome/status/1785399458269634714

The current Astros lineup projects to hit 117 wRC+ and is hitting 116 so far. The current Guardians lineup projects to hit 104 wRC+ and is hitting 106 so far.

What is wrong with the Astros Offense? This Graphic tells the story.

The Astros are a bad hitting team with RISP. They were a great hitting team with RISP in 2023.

We discussed this data on the Astros Weekly Recap. If you are not watching that weekly video I do with Clint, you should.

The biggest delta here is Altuve. I love Altuve. As we discussed, there may be an approach issue here.

LGM Astros Weekly Recap- 4/25/24- 12:15 PM (youtube.com)

Abreu going to West Palm Beach will also help. What a day.

Pitching Staff Comparison

The Astros projected to pitch 4.20 FIP in 2024 and have pitched to a 4.19 FIP so far. The Guardians projected to pitch 4.25 FIP in 2024 but have pitched to a 3.46 FIP so far.

You can see how the starting and relief pitchers have fared so far.

The Astros have some significant ERA to FIP disconnects. You better get to the Cleveland starters.

Here are the Astros pitchers sorted by FIP minus ERA gap. You can see as a general rule, that the unsustainably low BABIP pitchers align with those who have FIP higher than their ERAs. In my view, these have generally been lucky.

Notice the players in green. Their ERAs are all SIGNIFICANTLY higher than the FIPs. Their BABIPs are all UNSUSTAINABLE HIGH. Brown, Pressly, Hader, Dubin, and Arrighetti all SHOULD be better.

This table is sorted by FIP. The most worrisome pitchers on this list are:

• Abreu whose ERA is if anything too low compared to a 6.16 FIP.

• Montero, Verlander, Scott, Martinez, Blanco, and Javier all have similar FIPs higher than their ERAs.

This was also covered in detail on the Astros Weekly Recap.

Expected Stats (xwOBA) Tables - by Pitch Type and Platoon

These tables form the basis of my MoneyMaker matchups. One can follow the action and see what pitches the pitchers throw well and what pitches the hitter hit well.

This data unlocks the game within the game. It comes from the data provided from Baseball Savant. This data will change how you watch baseball if you really understand it.

Please see the data description below.

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First, I give you the Astros Data.

For Singleton, I have updated this database to reflect a hybrid of 2023-2024 MLB and AAA (w/ 80% factor). I think it is FAR more reflective of how the Astros are using Singleton.

For Kessinger, Loperfido, and Cabbage; I have updated this data based on AAA data from 2023-2024 with my 80% factor. Therefore, a AAA xwOBA of 0.400 is reduced to project it to an MLB xwOBA of 0.320.

Astros Batters vs. LHP

Astros Batters vs. RHP

Notice how the Astros batters are better vs. fastballs than they are breaking and off-speed pitches.

Astros Pitching vs. LHH

Astros Pitching vs. RHH

Opponent Batters vs. LHP

Opponent Batters vs. RHP

Opponent Pitching vs. LHH

Opponent Pitching vs. RHH

The beauty of this data is you can see the relative strengths and weaknesses of the hitter and pitcher and then understand why certain players are pitched the way they are and why substitutions are made.

Don't get lost in the numbers too much. Pay attention to the heatmap color if that helps.

Basic Rules

• Red is good for that player.

• Blue is not good.

• Average xwOBA set at 0.319.
  

The hitter and pitcher data gets cross referenced to produce the MoneyMaker Astros Daily Lineup Analysis that could be used to get an edge for your fantasy baseball teams.

Also check out the MoneyMaker: Astros Daily Lineup Analysis here for tonight's game. Video after the lineups are released.

Data Description

Batting Data- 2023

• This data shows for each batter the pitch mix they faced vs. LHP and RHP.

• Then the data show how each batter performed vs. that type of pitch as shown by xwOBA data.

  • xwOBA is used because we are trying to understand the quality of the contact they had vs. each pitch - velocity, launch angle, etc.- and are less focused on the actual luck impacted result.

• Under the total section

  • One can see how many total pitches that batter faced vs. the LHP/ RHP.

    • I have supplied all of the data available.

    • HOWEVER, if a player has less than 200 total pitches in a data set, I would be very careful and definitely focus more on the total and less on the pitch type data. These lines are formatted in yellow.

      • These lines are formatted in yellow.

      • For the Astros this impacts analysis for Singleton and Kessinger.

    • Similarly, off-speed pitch data is less robust as well for the same sample size issue.

  • One can then see how the batter performed overall.

    • xwOBA

    • wOBA- this shows how the actual performance compared to predicted performance.

    • This in essence captures the luck aspects of their 2023 season. A batter with a wOBA 0.030 higher than their xwOBA was lucky in 2023.

• In some case there is no data, or it is marked N/A. These happen for rookie pitchers where the is no 2023 data or where Baseball Savant does not have data for that pitch type.
  

Pitching Data- 2023

• This data shows for each pitcher the pitch mix they throw vs. LHH and RHH.

• Then the data show how each pitch performed with that type of pitch as shown by xwOBA data.

  • xwOBA is used because we are trying to understand the quality of the contact hitters had against them for each pitch - velocity, launch angle, etc.- and are less focused on the actual luck impacted result.

• Under the total section

  • One can see how many total pitches that pitcher threw vs. the LHH/ RHH.

    • I have supplied all of the data available.

    • HOWEVER, if a player has less than 200 total pitches in a data set, I would be very careful and definitely focus more on the total and less on the pitch type data.

      • These lines are formatted in yellow.

      • For the Astros this impacts analysis for Mushinski, Hader vs. LHH, and Scott vs. LHH

    • Similarly, off-speed pitch data is less robust as well for the same sample size issue. If a player has less than 10% of a pitch type, consider this a warning. This impacts MANY pitchers.

  • One can then see how the pitcher performed overall.

    • xwOBA

    • wOBA- this shows how the actual performance compared to predicted performance.

    • This in essence captures the luck aspects of their 2023 season. A pitcher with a wOBA 0.030 lower than their xwOBA was lucky in 2023.

• In some case there is no data, or it is marked N/A. These happen for rookie pitchers where the is no 2023 data or where Baseball Savant does not have data for that pitch type.