Unlock the game within the game with the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Cubs. Get in-depth batting, pitching, and expected stats analysis.
These will be a series-by-series installment for the Premium subscribers on the LarryTheGM site or for all of the Patreon subscribers.
I will do a video at 4:20 of the series here.
The Big Picture - WAR Rankings
The Astros project to have the third ranked offense, and the Cubs project to be the 16th ranked bats.
The Astros project to have the seventh ranked pitching group and the Cubs project to be the 11th best mound crew.
Overall, the Astros project to have the third highest WAR, and the Cubs project to deliver the 17th highest WAR.
WAR by Positions
Overall, the Astros have about a 7 Projected WAR advantage.
Current Team Status
The Astros have been a huge disappointment early. The Cubs have been better than expectations.
You can see how the teams compare in wRC+, OPS, FIP-, and ERA for this year and last year.
The Astros bats have been better overall despite their issues with RISP. The Cubs pitching has been better than the Astros.
Bating Lineups Comparison
This table compares the offenses of the two teams by each spot in their projected typical batting orders.
The current Astros lineup projects to hit 117 wRC+ and is hitting 118 so far. The current Cubs lineup projects to hit 103 wRC+ and is hitting 105 so far.
What is wrong with the Astros Offense? This Graphic tells the story.
Breaking News- The Cubs are DFAing Garrett Cooper and promoting their 1B Prospect Matt Mervis. Cooper is hitting WELL (118 wRC+) and was making only $1.8M AAV. Mervis was hitting 151 wRC+ in AAA.
It is ironic that this is happening. The Astros haven't DFAed Abreu who is hitting -32 wRC+ and bring in Loperfido who is hitting 142 wRC+ in AAA. Why? Because Abreu is owed $39M in 2024-2025.
Pitching Staff Comparison
Javier went to the IL for the Astros with Neck Discomfort. Yet another SP sent to the IL for the Astros.
The Astros projected to pitch 4.20 FIP in 2024 and have pitched to a 4.31 FIP so far. The Cubs projected to pitch 4.28 FIP in 2024 but have pitched to a 4.08 FIP so far.
You can see how the starting and relief pitchers have fared so far.
The Astros have some significant ERA to FIP disconnects.
Here are the Astros pitchers sorted by FIP minus ERA gap. You can see as a general rule, that the unsustainably low BABIP pitchers align with those who have FIP higher than their ERAs. In my view, these have generally been lucky.
Notice the players in green. Their ERAs are all SIGNIFICANTLY higher than the FIPs. Their BABIPs are all UNSUSTAINABLE HIGH. Brown, Pressly, Hader, and Arrighetti all SHOULD be better.
This table is sorted by FIP. The most worrisome pitchers on this list are:
Abreu whose ERA is if anything too low compared to a 6.72 FIP.
Montero whose 4.91 FIP is far more representative of true performance. His BABIP is unsustainably low.
Expected Stats (xwOBA) Tables - by Pitch Type and Platoon
These tables form the basis of my MoneyMaker matchups. One can follow the action and see what pitches the pitchers throw well and what pitches the hitter hit well.
This data unlocks the game within the game. It comes from the data provided from Baseball Savant. This data will change how you watch baseball if you really understand it.
Please see the data description below.
First, I give you the Astros Data.
Astros Batters vs. LHP
Astros Batters vs. RHP
Astros Pitching vs. LHH
Astros Pitching vs. RHH
Opponent Batters vs. LHP- Mervis Data is fairly preliminary and I would hesitate to use it
Opponent Batters vs. RHP
Opponent Pitching vs. LHH
Opponent Pitching vs. RHH
The beauty of this data is you can see the relative strengths and weaknesses of the hitter and pitcher and then understand why certain players are pitched the way they are and why substitutions are made.
Don't get lost in the numbers too much. Pay attention to the heatmap color if that helps.
Basic Rules
Red is good for that player.
Blue is not good.
Average xwOBA set at 0.319.
The hitter and pitcher data gets cross referenced to produce the MoneyMaker Astros Daily Lineup Analysis that could be used to get an edge for your fantasy baseball teams.
Also check out the MoneyMaker: Astros Daily Lineup Analysis here for tonight's game. Video after the lineups are released.
Data Description
Batting Data- 2023
This data shows for each batter the pitch mix they faced vs. LHP and RHP.
Then the data show how each batter performed vs. that type of pitch as shown by xwOBA data.
xwOBA is used because we are trying to understand the quality of the contact they had vs. each pitch - velocity, launch angle, etc.- and are less focused on the actual luck impacted result.
Under the total section
One can see how many total pitches that batter faced vs. the LHP/ RHP.
I have supplied all of the data available.
HOWEVER, if a player has less than 200 total pitches in a data set, I would be very careful and definitely focus more on the total and less on the pitch type data. These lines are formatted in yellow.
These lines are formatted in yellow.
For the Astros this impacts analysis for Singleton and Kessinger.
Similarly, off-speed pitch data is less robust as well for the same sample size issue.
One can then see how the batter performed overall.
xwOBA
wOBA- this shows how the actual performance compared to predicted performance.
This in essence captures the luck aspects of their 2023 season. A batter with a wOBA 0.030 higher than their xwOBA was lucky in 2023.
In some case there is no data, or it is marked N/A. These happen for rookie pitchers where the is no 2023 data or where Baseball Savant does not have data for that pitch type.
Pitching Data- 2023
This data shows for each pitcher the pitch mix they throw vs. LHH and RHH.
Then the data show how each pitch performed with that type of pitch as shown by xwOBA data.
xwOBA is used because we are trying to understand the quality of the contact hitters had against them for each pitch - velocity, launch angle, etc.- and are less focused on the actual luck impacted result.
Under the total section
One can see how many total pitches that pitcher threw vs. the LHH/ RHH.
I have supplied all of the data available.
HOWEVER, if a player has less than 200 total pitches in a data set, I would be very careful and definitely focus more on the total and less on the pitch type data.
These lines are formatted in yellow.
For the Astros this impacts analysis for Mushinski, Hader vs. LHH, and Scott vs. LHH
Similarly, off-speed pitch data is less robust as well for the same sample size issue. If a player has less than 10% of a pitch type, consider this a warning. This impacts MANY pitchers.
One can then see how the pitcher performed overall.
xwOBA
wOBA- this shows how the actual performance compared to predicted performance.
This in essence captures the luck aspects of their 2023 season. A pitcher with a wOBA 0.030 lower than their xwOBA was lucky in 2023.
In some case there is no data, or it is marked N/A. These happen for rookie pitchers where the is no 2023 data or where Baseball Savant does not have data for that pitch type.
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