Unlock the game within the game with the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Nationals. Get in-depth batting, pitching, and expected stats analysis.
These will be a series-by-series installment for the Premium subscribers on the LarryTheGM site or for all of the Patreon subscribers.
I will do a video at 4:45 of the series here.
If you have not watched the Astros Weekly Recap, please check it out here!
Clint and I broke down what is wrong with the Astros.
The Article link has the slide deck and a link to our weekly video.
The Gauntlet is OVER! If you don't know what that means, check out the weekly recap and the Gauntlet article here. The tone is about to change significantly here.
The Big Picture - WAR Rankings
The Astros project to have the third ranked offense, and the Nationals project to be the 29th ranked bats. Twenty-Ninth!
The Astros project to have the seventh ranked pitching group and the Nationals project to be the 27th best mound crew.
Overall, the Astros project to have the third highest WAR, and the Nationals project to deliver the 29th highest WAR. So, the Astros go from the best to nearly worst projected teams.
Oh boy!
WAR by Positions
Overall, the Astros have about a 23 Projected WAR disadvantage.
Current Team Status
The Astros have been a huge disappointment early. The National have been better than expectations.
The Astros have the number two wRC+ hitting team in 2024 at 126 and the Nationals are number twenty-one at 92. We also discussed the Astros issues with hitting with RISP in the recap.
The Nationals have been a huge surprise with the fourth best FIP and the Astros pitching has been decimated by injuries and inexplicable blowups vs. breaking pitches and rank 25th in FIP.
Bating Lineups Comparison
This table compares the offenses of the two teams by each spot in their projected typical batting orders.
The current Astros lineup projects to hit 117 wRC+ and is hitting 126 so far. The current Nationals lineup projects to hit 92 wRC+ and is hitting 92 so far.
Pitching Staff Comparison
This table compares the pitching of the two teams by each role on their staff.
JUSTIN VERLANDER returns tonight!
The Astros projected to pitch 4.20 FIP in 2024 and have pitched to a 4.37 FIP so far. The Braves projected to pitch 4.75 FIP in 2024 but have pitched to a 3.47 FIP so far.
You can see how the starting and relief pitchers have fared so far.
Which stat is real for the Nationals starting pitchers?
The National SP's wOBA is 0.340 and xwOBA is 0.342. They would tend to validate the worse ERA. The BABIP is 0.346. That would tend to explain the FIP projecting the performance to be better. We will see with time.
Expected Stats (xwOBA) Tables - by Pitch Type and Platoon
These tables form the basis of my MoneyMaker matchups. One can follow the action and see what pitches the pitchers throw well and what pitches the hitter hit well.
This data unlocks the game within the game. It comes from the data provided from Baseball Savant. This data will change how you watch baseball if you really understand it.
Please see the data description below.
First, I give you the Astros Data.
Astros Batters vs. LHP
Astros Batters vs. RHP
Astros Pitching vs. LHH
Astros Pitching vs. RHH
Nationals Batters vs. LHP
Nationals Batters vs. RHP
Nationals Pitching vs. LHH
Nationals Pitching vs. RHH
The beauty of this data is you can see the relative strengths and weaknesses of the hitter and pitcher and then understand why certain players are pitched the way they are and why substitutions are made.
Don't get lost in the numbers too much. Pay attention to the heatmap color if that helps.
Basic Rules
Red is good for that player.
Blue is not good.
Average xwOBA set at 0.319.
The hitter and pitcher data gets cross referenced to produce the MoneyMaker Astros Daily Lineup Analysis that could be used to get an edge for your fantasy baseball teams.
Also check out the MoneyMaker: Astros Daily Lineup Analysis here for tonight's game. Video after the lineups are released.
Data Description
Batting Data- 2023
This data shows for each batter the pitch mix they faced vs. LHP and RHP.
Then the data show how each batter performed vs. that type of pitch as shown by xwOBA data.
xwOBA is used because we are trying to understand the quality of the contact they had vs. each pitch - velocity, launch angle, etc.- and are less focused on the actual luck impacted result.
Under the total section
One can see how many total pitches that batter faced vs. the LHP/ RHP.
I have supplied all of the data available.
HOWEVER, if a player has less than 200 total pitches in a data set, I would be very careful and definitely focus more on the total and less on the pitch type data. These lines are formatted in yellow.
These lines are formatted in yellow.
For the Astros this impacts analysis for Singleton and Kessinger.
Similarly, off-speed pitch data is less robust as well for the same sample size issue.
One can then see how the batter performed overall.
xwOBA
wOBA- this shows how the actual performance compared to predicted performance.
This in essence captures the luck aspects of their 2023 season. A batter with a wOBA 0.030 higher than their xwOBA was lucky in 2023.
In some case there is no data, or it is marked N/A. These happen for rookie pitchers where the is no 2023 data or where Baseball Savant does not have data for that pitch type.
Pitching Data- 2023
This data shows for each pitcher the pitch mix they throw vs. LHH and RHH.
Then the data show how each pitch performed with that type of pitch as shown by xwOBA data.
xwOBA is used because we are trying to understand the quality of the contact hitters had against them for each pitch - velocity, launch angle, etc.- and are less focused on the actual luck impacted result.
Under the total section
One can see how many total pitches that pitcher threw vs. the LHH/ RHH.
I have supplied all of the data available.
HOWEVER, if a player has less than 200 total pitches in a data set, I would be very careful and definitely focus more on the total and less on the pitch type data.
These lines are formatted in yellow.
For the Astros this impacts analysis for Mushinski, Hader vs. LHH, and Scott vs. LHH
Similarly, off-speed pitch data is less robust as well for the same sample size issue. If a player has less than 10% of a pitch type, consider this a warning. This impacts MANY pitchers.
One can then see how the pitcher performed overall.
xwOBA
wOBA- this shows how the actual performance compared to predicted performance.
This in essence captures the luck aspects of their 2023 season. A pitcher with a wOBA 0.030 lower than their xwOBA was lucky in 2023.
In some case there is no data, or it is marked N/A. These happen for rookie pitchers where the is no 2023 data or where Baseball Savant does not have data for that pitch type.
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