Which NCAA teams exceeded and failed expectations the most in 2023. I give you my Top 25 NCAA Football Dudes and my Top 25 NCAA Football Frauds.
Every year the experts tell us which teams will be great, good, average, bad, and terrible. On average, the consensus Las Vegas over/ under win total was 1.5 wins off from the actual win total. I was off by 1.6 wins- so trust Vegas I guess. Upon seeing this I decided to create two top 25 lists.
These lists are NOT my opinion on the subject of exceeding or falling short of expectations. I compared the Vegas Preseason consensus over/under line with what actually happened.
The biggest positive win gap is the Dude team of the year. In case of ties, I gave the nod to the team that won the most games.
The worst win gap (biggest negative) is the Fraud team of the year. In case of ties, I gave the nod to the team with the highest expectation for wins.
I know we all have teams we THINK should be on this list. I added the entire FBS list at the end in alphabetical order.
The Top 25 NCAA Football Dudes
These are the teams that EXCEEDED expectations the most. Who should you have bet the OVER with in Vegas before the season? These are the NCAA Football Dudes.
New Mexico State, who finished 10-2, are the NCAA Dudes. Jerry Kill and these Aggies enjoyed life in the CUSA in their first year. They won FIVE more games than Vegas had as the over/ under.
Arizona and Northwestern are second and third on the dude's rankings. Their coaches are possible conference coach of the year candidates. They both wone FOUR more games than Vegas had as the over/ under.
The Top 25 NCAA Football Frauds
These are the teams that FAILED expectations the most. Who should you have bet the UNDER with in Vegas before the season? These are the NCAA Football Frauds.
Baylor and Pitt, who both finished 3-9, are the NCAA biggest Frauds. They both lost FOUR more games that Vegas has as the over/ under. Somehow Aranda is keeping his job.
Florida Atlantic and San Diego St. both were supposed to win 7.5 games this year and won 4. This makes them the next two on the Frauds list. Hoke was fired at SDSU.
You see that several of the coaches of the frauds have already been fired and more may be soon.
Here you are - The 2023 College Football Dudes and Frauds. Which teams surprised you the most.
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