Myth Busting: Astros One Year Ago Today
Myth #1: Yainer Diaz is Terrible Compared to Last Year
One Year Ago Today
83 PA
101 wRC+
0.3 WAR
Today
221 PA
98 wRC+
0.7 WAR
Status: False- He is now very close to where he was hitting last year at this time
What happened the rest of 2023?
294 PA
134 wRC+
2.2 WAR
Diaz got better as the weather got hotter in 2021 and 2022 in the minors too. Perhaps, we just need to calibrate to allowing Diaz be Diaz early.
Diaz may have been playing too much.
Conclusion- He was playing too much. Manage Diaz's PT to 70% to 75%. Enjoy the ride.
Myth #2: Jake Meyers has never been even close to this good
One Year Ago Today
175 PA
110 wRC+ 1.1 WAR (Third on the team)
Today
175 PA
119 wRC+ 1.5 WAR (Fourth on the team)
Status: False- He is now very close to where he was hitting last year at this time. His playing time is basically the same.
What happened the rest of 2023?
166 PA
64 wRC+
0.2 WAR (Tenth on the team)
Meyers slumped in June 2023 (70wRC+). Dusty decided to play Meyers less. Meyers never got going again.
Conclusion: Do not sit Meyers too much. Maintain 65-75% Starts.
Myth #3: Alex Bregman sucks this year and has never played anything like this
Two Years Ago Today
230 PA
110 wRC+
1.2 WAR
One Year Ago Today
273 PA
111 wRC+
1.2 WAR
Today
258 PA
102 wRC+
1.5 WAR (His Defense has made his WAR HIGHER on this date than the previous two years)
What happened the rest of 2023?
451 PA
134 wRC+
3.2 WAR (Third on the team)
Conclusion: Alex Bregman is just fine. Reports of his demise were premature and looking worse by the day.
Myth #4: The Astros are so far back and have no chance to win the division
I saved the best for last.
One Year Ago Today
The Rangers were 40-21 in first place
The Astros were 36-27 in second place and were 5.0 games behind
The Mariners were 30-31 in FOURTH place and were 10.0 games behind
The teams finished
Astros 90-72
Rangers 90-72 (Won the World Series)
Mariners 88-74
Today
The Mariners are 36-29 in first place
The Rangers are 30-33 in second place and are 5.0 games behind
The Astros are 29-36 in third place and are 6.5 games behind
The Astros are in very close to the same position they were last year on this date. In case you think it is too late to make up 6.5 games and win the division, the Astros were 6.5 games back and in third place on 6/24/23. Now try to tell me this team cannot win the division.
There you go. Narratives busted. Myths busted. Relax Astros fans, and enjoy the ride.
Comments