Today, I showed how the recent MLB Wild Card teams have allocated pitchers for their MLB Wild Crad round postseason staffs.
Now, let's discover who are the fourteen most likely position players to be on the Astros AL Wild Card lineup. Who is on the bubble? How would we project those 14 hitters to perform? What happens if Alvarez is NOT available for the AL Wild Card?
Here is my statistics snapshot of what I think the Astros Wild Card position players will be.
First, I give you the 2024 season hitter's wRC+ (100 is average, adjusts for ballpark effects.)
I then give you the full season xwOBA platoon split for each hitter. The Astros have hit 0.322 vs. LHP and 0.325 vs. RHP. You can see how might deploy certain hitters vs. LHP and RHP.
Next, is the wRC+ since 8/1/24. This will show who is doing well down the stretch and who has struggled.
Notice the cells at the bottom. For the season, the Astros have hit to a 111 wRC+ (LGM grade B+).
However, with only the 14 Postseason WC hitters projected and using a weighted average (weighted by PA) for the games since August, this group has a 116 wRC+ which is an A- LarryTheGM grade.
Since I think the Astros will carry 14 position players, I think the Astros actually promote Pedro Leon to play the 2024 version of 2018 Myles Straw. He is on the roster to run not hit. Leon has 29 SB in AAA (plus 2 for the Astros) and Whitcomb has 26 SB in AAA. IF the Astros need to score a run with speed or a stolen base, these two will be the answer.
The other answer for the last position player spot may be Kessinger. Kessinger MIGHT be the choice if the Astros want a defense first option. Leon and Kessinger are the two on the bubble in my opinion.
Let's look at the lineups vs. LHSP and RHSP and the probable lineup in the AL Wild Card.
I did not look up the platoon wRC+ numbers. The best numbers here are probably the platoon xwOBA data. The average xwOBA in 2024 is 0.315.
Versus LHP the Astros players projected to play in the ALWC have hit 0.333 xwOBA this season.
Versus RHP the Astros players projected to play in the ALWC have hit 0.342 xwOBA this season.
Without Alvarez
How does the lineup project IF they have to play the ALWC without Alvarez?
Versus LHP without Alvarez the Astros players projected to play in the ALWC have hit 0.315 xwOBA this season. The Astros are average offensively vs. LHP without Alvarez.
Versus RHP without Alvarez the Astros players projected to play in the ALWC have hit 0.331 xwOBA this season.
Here is a summary of the lineups.
Watch the video for some more thoughts.
Commentaires