Exclusive MoneyMaker Content
My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. I have somethings coming for you in the MLB, but before I get there let's take a preview and hopefully give you the early edge in the NCAA win total market.
FanDuel published their first round of 2024 NCAA win totals that you can see here:
As of this writing, only the teams that are in the Power 4 are included. With a few exceptions, I do not consider this an issue as I will show.
I am going to show you a simple strategy for evaluating these win totals for the SEC and give you what I think is easily the best bet in that conference. You can apply this methodology to all of the other teams in the FBS with the data I will give you.
BUT FIRST- a disclaimer, this content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.
Let's go through the process I am going to use to evaluate each program's schedule. I represent the data for my Texas Longhorns.
In the FanDuel's odds, the Longhorns have a projected over/under of 10.5 wins. I also show the win totals for every one of the Longhorns opponents. For each game, if the Texas projected win total is higher than their opponent, then that game is assumed to be a win. For each game, if the Texas projected win total is lower than their opponent, then that game is assumed to be a loss. For each game, if the Texas projected win total is the same as their opponent, then that game is assumed to be a tie (counted as 0.5 wins). I then add the wins (don't worry I adjust for the bye week "wins" showing.)
In the Texas example, the Longhorns have a projected win total greater than every team on their schedule, except Georgia. Therefore, the Horns would be expected to have an 11.5-win total.
Also shown for each team is the sum of the wins for the teams that are available. This will be an early strength of schedule estimate when odds are available for all teams.
What about the opponents who aren't projected yet by FanDuel? For MOST of these games, I believe the SEC team would me a heavy favorite. I will highlight the exceptions in the tables I show for all of the teams. In the following tables the shaded cells have a team where there is not win total odds yet. For those games"
Green shaded cells- SEC team will be a heavy favorite.
Yellow shaded cells- game MIGHT be close or a toss-up
Red shaded cells- The non-SEC team will likely be favored.
Here are the tables for the 16 SEC teams:
Again, given the status of the data we want to find the largest gaps possible. This table gives that summary.
There is ONE team that has by far the biggest gap- Florida. Scroll back up and notice their schedule. Josh Pate JUST mentioned their win total is too high.
If you want to make one bet on the SEC win total, bet Florida under before the total drops.
If you want two other options, consider Missouri (over) and Oklahoma (under).
Why is the Florida win total such a good bet? For this next table I tried to estimate the wins of the shaded cells. As you can see Florida is playing a schedule against teams that are projected to win 97.5 games. That might be the most difficult schedule a college team has EVER played. I challenge you to find the five wins much less six.
You will also notice Oklahoma has the projected second hardest schedule and Missouri has the easiest. Just another reason they may be good bets too.
There you go MoneyMakers- these are my SEC Over/Under Win Total Best Bets. Proceed with caution but don't wait for others to drive down the Florida win total line.
Now you can also apply this methodology to the other conferences or wait for me to do it one conference at a time. It will take me a while. It is baseball season now.
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