I am committed to bringing you MoneyMaker Content for the MLB and NCAA. For my NCAA MoneyMaker Content, I am going to bring you where I see gaps in the line and show you by my system where I THINK the line should be.
If you have not read any of the NCAA Season preview content, PLEASE check it out here.
First, let me give you - the MoneyMakers, the key to how I am building my line predictions. THIS IS OUR SECRET METHOD! They are based on the PFF Point Spread Rating found here.
For today, here are the gaps in the Vegas betting line and the action to be considered.
Folks, this is VERY developmental. I like how it played through for the season predictions, but how it works week to week is still to be determined. As I went through the season predictions, I made some adjustments to the PFF Point Spread Rating to fix what I thought were errors.
Here are the Week 1 Point Spread Gaps.
I think a gap need to be at least 8 (either less than -8 or more than +8) to consider action. You will see that the system is generally suggesting a LOT of underdogs. I am not sure about that.
I added the Texas game for my interest only. It is not actionable by this rule.
Let's see how the system would have done on games so far. Let me say that only FBS teams actually have Point Spread Ratings. That means a game to consider MUST be a FBS matchup. We have played a lot of games already, but most HAVE NOT been FBS vs. FBS games. Here are the ones who have been.
Only THREE of these games meet the -8/+8 rule. The system got two of the three correct.
The one it got wrong was OU covering 43.5 when the system said they should have been favored only by 25.7. I think that gives us an additional warning. Stay away from 30-point spreads.
I am also going to stay away from -10 or less Point Spread Rating teams at least for now.
Here are the FIVE Week 1 Line Gaps to monitor today. How does the system do? What else do we learn?
Ohio to NOT lose by 17.5. My gap is 3. Is Syracuse overrated? The system screams YES.
Georgia State to lose by 9 not 20.5. Is Georgia Tech being hyped too much after Week 0? It is VERY VERY possible.
Old Dominion to lose by 11.6 not 21. South Carolina has gotten a lot of offseason benefit of the doubt. That may get shattered if they do struggle vs. ODU.
Southern Miss to lose by less than 27 at Kentucky. You might want to extend the rule to this game. Stay away?
All of those were road dogs. Three of the Five times the system worked were road dogs. There was the neutral site game in Ireland. Then there was the home dog Nevada.
Can Georgia Southern also be a home dog that the system gets right? We will see.
MoneyMakers, let me know what you think. I would not take action on these YET, but that is how the system works. Now you have something else to watch today.
How did these do?
We were 3-2 in predicting Week 1.
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