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Looking for the best MLB MVP bets? Discover MoneyMaker's top picks and expert analysis for the 2024 season. Get the edge on Vegas odds now!
My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Today I want to give you the edge related to the MLB MVP odds.
BUT FIRST- a disclaimer, this content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.
Without going into massive detail, I did want to share a brief bit about my process.
1. I took the Fangraphs WAR vs. the share of the MVP vote from Baseball Reference. for the 2021-2023 seasons.
Ohtani is an outlier in this data. I left him out. Since he is an one-way player in 2024, this is probably best.
2. I made a linear regression of this data. You will notice there is a lot of scatter here.
3. The goal here is to be able to say, if this player delivers X WAR; he should get Y% of the MVP vote.
4. I then pulled the top WAR projected players for 2024 from Fangraphs. This is where you will have to make a value judgement in how much you trust projected stats.
5. For each projected WAR, I calculated the player's model projected MVP vote share.
6. That project vote share was then translated to a "fair odds" for winning the MVP.
If a player projects to win 50% of the vote then the fair odds would be 2:1 or 200 on the Vegas Insider page (which assumes a $100 bet.)
The odds are shown here: 2024 MLB Most Valuable Player Odds | MLB MVP Futures Odds (vegasinsider.com). You should try to get the highest odds possible for a player assuming you have an option where to place the bet.
7. The players whose betting odds at the highest ratio to their fair odds are the best bets.
Alex Bregman would actually be THE best bet. This is actually a very interesting conclusion.
Here is the problem. I don't think I would bet on anyone that is a 12% projected vote share player. It's irrelevant that it's the best longshot.
My Recommendations
I would stick to the players with the best ratio at the top of this list.
Acuna is actually a good choice.
Tatis gives the bettor an interesting play. A good ration in the top 5 WAR projected.
Rodriguez, Rutschman, and Henderson are the young stars that are probably the best bets in the AL. If Judge gets hurt again, having money on all three might make for an interesting year.
Well, there you have it. The MoneyMaker Best Bets for MLB MVP. I don't think I would risk this on the Cy Young. Pitcher performance has a higher injury risk and variability.
PLEASE PLEASE tell me what you think.
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