This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon.
My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 5/5/24- Astros vs. Mariners.
I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.
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Disclaimer 1- This content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.
Baseball is not a sport that lends itself to daily action. What I am doing here is nearly impossible. I am giving you the angle most can't see nor apply. THAT is part of what makes this site so unique.
Disclaimer 2- These articles are going to be blunt and reflect what the numbers say and NOT what I want nor what I hope happens. DO NOT get this confused. I am TRYING to help you in the fantasy baseball and daily fantasy space. I am not going to waste your time on what I want. I am going to tell you what the numbers say is most LIKELY.
You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Mariners- 5/3- 5/5 (larrythegm.com) for this series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.
The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data
This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.
We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.
Starting for the Astros- Hunter Brown vs. the Mariners
Brown gets the Start for the Astros. His 0.444 BABIP would indicate he has been massively unlucky. Among all pitchers with more than 20 IP, Hunter Brown has THE WORST BABIP. It will not stay that way. Period. His 5.72 FIP (while not good) vs. 9.78 ERA validates how unluck Brown has been. For us xwOBA folks, his 2024 xwOBA is 0.354 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.319.
The Mariners project as a team to hit 0.342 xwOBA today
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The Mariners best bet fantasy stars today are:
The runs model would project the Mariners to score 5.4 runs today if the starting pitcher was in the game for 9 innings.
Starting for the Mariners- Bryce Miller vs. the Astros
Miller gets the Start for the Mariners. His 0.179 BABIP would indicate he has been lucky. His 3.80 FIP vs. 2.04 ERA validates this luck component. For us xwOBA folks, his 2024 xwOBA is 0.316 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.337.
The Astros project as a team to hit 0.383 xwOBA today- excellent.
Note: For Singleton, I have updated this database to reflect a hybrid of 2023-2024 MLB and AAA (w/ 80% factor). I think it is FAR more reflective of how the Astros are using Singleton.
For Kessinger, Loperfido, and Cabbage; I have updated this data based on AAA data from 2023-2024 with my 80% factor. Therefore, a AAA xwOBA of 0.400 is reduced to project it to an MLB xwOBA of 0.320.
Note: The Astros are loading the lineup with LHH playing Singleton, Loperfido, AND Cabbage today. Why?
This will be another illustration of why I use xwOBA and consider BABIP in my analysis. Notice the massive platoon split that exists in 2023. Note that by wOBA and OPS it is reversed in 2024. Or is it just LUCK?
BABIP (0.116) shows us that Miller in the 73 PA vs. LHH has been MASSIVELY lucky in 2024. I say that luck ends TODAY.
Note that the xwOBA shows the platoon split. I wonder which data the Astros trust. Their lineup choices today tell you.
Load up on the two best LHH!
The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:
The runs model would project the Astros to score 6.7 runs today if the starting pitcher was in the game for 9 innings.
Let's have fun today Astros fans.
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