This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon.
Note: I have a wedding of some friends this evening, so this post is going out EARLY. The lineups will be guesses.
My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 5/2/24- Astros vs. Guardians.
I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.
Join here to watch at 6:15PM: Sorry no video today
You can catch the series guide
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Disclaimer 1- This content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.
Baseball is not a sport that lends itself to daily action. What I am doing here is nearly impossible. I am giving you the angle most can't see nor apply. THAT is part of what makes this site so unique.
Disclaimer 2- These articles are going to be blunt and reflect what the numbers say and NOT what I want nor what I hope happens. DO NOT get this confused. I am TRYING to help you in the fantasy baseball and daily fantasy space. I am not going to waste your time on what I want. I am going to tell you what the numbers say is most LIKELY.
You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Guardians- 4/30- 5/2 (larrythegm.com) for this series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.
The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data
This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.
We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.
Starting for the Astros-Spencer Arrighetti vs. the Guardians
This is Arrighetti's fourth start.
I am not ready to recommend players vs Arrighetti. No picks for the Guardians.
Starting for the Guardians- Logan Allen vs. the Astros
Allen gets the Start for the Guardians. His 0.297 BABIP would indicate he has been on par with lucky. His 5.12 FIP vs. 5.46 ERA would validate this. For us xWOBA folks, his 2024 xwOBA is 0.333 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.323. Allen has been better than his results.
The Astros project as a team to hit 0.326 xwOBA today- not good.
Note: For Singleton, I have updated this database to reflect a hybrid of 2023-2024 MLB and AAA (w/ 80% factor). I think it is FAR more reflective of how the Astros are using Singleton.
For Kessinger, Loperfido, and Cabbage; I have updated this data based on AAA data from 2023-2024 with my 80% factor. Therefore, a AAA xwOBA of 0.400 is reduced to project it to an MLB xwOBA of 0.320.
The Astros best bet (they aren't great) fantasy stars today are:
Not making a lot of picks vs. Allen.
The runs model would project the Astros to score 4.9 runs today if the starting pitcher was in the game for 9 innings.
Let's have fun today Astros fans.
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