This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon.
My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 5/18/24- Astros vs. Brewers
I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.
Here is today's video-
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Disclaimer 1- This content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.
Baseball is not a sport that lends itself to daily action. What I am doing here is nearly impossible. I am giving you the angle most can't see nor apply. THAT is part of what makes this site so unique.
Disclaimer 2- These articles are going to be blunt and reflect what the numbers say and NOT what I want nor what I hope happens. DO NOT get this confused. I am TRYING to help you in the fantasy baseball and daily fantasy space. I am not going to waste your time on what I want. I am going to tell you what the numbers say is most LIKELY.
You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Brewers- 5/17- 5/19 (larrythegm.com) for this series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.
The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data
This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.
We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.
Starting for the Astros- Justin Verlander vs. the Brewers
The Brewers have a couple of players who do not have data yet in my database.
Of the Brewers players I do have; they project as a team to hit ONLY 0.263 xwOBA today vs. the Verlander stats. This could be a good day for JV.
The Brewers best bet fantasy stars today are:
None
Normally I would say this is a bet for Verlander. As a team the Brewers hit 0.311 xwOBA in 2023. They have hit to a 0.327 this year.
The runs model would project the Brewers to score 2.8 runs today if the starting pitcher was in the game for 9 innings.
Starting for the Brewers- Bryse Wilson vs. the Astros
Before I discuss the lineup today vs. RHP Wilson, let me share this.
Wilson has a massive platoon split. LHH RAKE against him and RHHs DON'T.
Here is the Astros lineup tonight.
WHY are the two LHH OF sitting on the bench and two RHH OF playing?
Frankly, I don't know. Our OF have platoon splits. Wilson has massive platoon splits. I do not understand sitting Loperfido and Cabbage today.
Cabbage is a 0.353 xwOBA matchup. Dubon is a 0.247. What are we doing?
The Astros project as a team to hit 0.351 xwOBA today.
Below, I show you an alternate lineup with Loperfido and Cabbage. This lineup has a projected 0.369 xwOBA.
The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:
The runs model would project the Astros to score 5.7 runs today if the starting pitcher was in the game for 9 innings. The alternate would project to score 6.3 runs today. We are CHOOSING to give up a projected 0.6 runs today.
Let's have fun today Astros fans.
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