This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon.
My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 5/11/24- Astros vs. Tigers
I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.
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Disclaimer 1- This content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.
Baseball is not a sport that lends itself to daily action. What I am doing here is nearly impossible. I am giving you the angle most can't see nor apply. THAT is part of what makes this site so unique.
Disclaimer 2- These articles are going to be blunt and reflect what the numbers say and NOT what I want nor what I hope happens. DO NOT get this confused. I am TRYING to help you in the fantasy baseball and daily fantasy space. I am not going to waste your time on what I want. I am going to tell you what the numbers say is most LIKELY.
You also may want to check out the https://www.larrythegm.com/post/premium-astros-series-guide-data-tigers-5-10-5-12
for this series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.
Before we begin, name this Astros Pitcher:
2023
3.83 ERA
5.19 FIP
xwOBA
vs. LHH 0.370
vs. RHH 0.341
2024
5.71ERA
5.92 FIP
xwOBA
vs. LHH 0.367
vs. RHH 0.388
It is Brandon Bielak who was DFAed today.
Astros fans, Yes, Bielak has had an important role for the team.
The entire point of the pitching issues is - we have players pitching we don't intend to have pitching in September. The Astros have a BOTTOM 3 pitching staff with a 4.92 ERA and a 4.62 FIP. If you are pitching worse than that on both metrics expect to be moved out when the others return.
Also, PLEASE PLEASE pay more attention to FIP and xwOBA numbers and less on ERA.
Age/ ERA/ FIP
Bielak 28/ 5.71/ 5.92- DFAed today, no options
France 29/ 7.46/ 5.52- already optioned to AAA
Brown 25/ 8.89/ 5.49
Arrighetti 24/ 8.44/ 5.21
Dubin 28/ 8.38/ 2.94
If you are arguing the Astros SHOULD HAVE optioned Arrighetti, Dubin, or Brown; you are probably paying too much attention to ERA.
The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data
This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.
We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.
Starting for the Astros- Christian Javier vs. the Tigers
Javier returns from IL as mentioned above. How long will he pitch?
The Tigers have several rookies players who do not have data yet in my database.
Of the Tigers players I do have, they project as a team to hit 0.335 xwOBA today
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The Tigers best bet fantasy stars today are:
Greene (0.395)- over 0.5 Total Bases (-185 on Bovada)
The runs model would project the Tigers to score 5.2 runs today if the starting pitcher was in the game for 9 innings.
Starting for the Tigers- Tarik Skubal vs. the Astros
Skubal is one of the seven best SP in the MLB and BEST on FIP. It is not a fluke. The LHSP had a 0.236 xwOBA last year and has a 0.238 xwOBA this year.
The Astros project as a team to hit 0.225 xwOBA today. OH NO!
Why no Tucker? His 0.285 xwOBA vs. LHP Skubal may be his worst matchup since the first week.
Why Loperfido? Rook, go wear one? He has a worse chance than Tucker. I anticipate Loperfido will try to bunt on. You heard it here first.
The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:
There are no Astros to bet on today.
The bet should be on Skubal. I just refuse to admit it.
The runs model would project the Astros to score 1.6 runs today if the starting pitcher was in the game for 9 innings.
Let's have fun today Astros fans.
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