This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon. To celebrate the beginning of a new season I am making these available to EVERYONE.
My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 4/7/24- Astros vs. Rangers.
I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.
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Disclaimer 1- This content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.
Baseball is not a sport that lends itself to daily action. What I am doing here is nearly impossible. I am giving you the angle most can't see nor apply. THAT is part of what makes this site so unique.
Disclaimer 2- These articles are going to be blunt and reflect what the numbers say and NOT what I want nor what I hope happens. DO NOT get this confused. I am TRYING to help you in the fantasy baseball and daily fantasy space. I am not going to waste your time on what I want. I am going to tell you what the numbers say is most LIKELY.
You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide
Data- Rangers 4/5- 4/8 (larrythegm.com) for this series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.
The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data
This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.
We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.
Here is an early look BEFORE the lineups are announced.
Starting for the Astros- Ronel Blanco vs. the Rangers
Today the Astros go with Blanco.
Last Start- Blanco had a NO-HITTER in first start in 2024. He gave up 0 ER in 9IP. His 2.31 FIP (more responsive to contact metrics) was still great but not his 0.00 ERA. For us xWOBA folks, his first start was 0.147 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.345. Can Blanco keep the magic going?
There is no data for Langford from 2023.
This lineup has a 0.362 xwOBA matchup vs. Blanco. This is a challenge for the Astros vs. a tough Rangers lineup. Blanco used if off-speed pitches far more in Spring Training and game 1 (34.3%). Our data for Blanco will need the 2024 data as soon as feasible- Probably June. For now, we will NOT recommend opponent batters who struggled against off-speed pitches in 2023.
The Rangers Best Bets tonight
These would be the daily fantasy picks from the Rangers.
The runs model would project them to score 6.1 runs today if Blanco was in the game for 9 innings.
Starting for the Rangers- Jon Gray vs. the Astros
Last start- Dan Dunning gave up 3 ER in 6.1 IP in his first start. His 0.091 BABIP would indicate he was very lucky. This is validated by a 7.94 FIP vs. his 4.26 ERA. For us xWOBA folks, his first start was 0.483 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.325. It should have been much worse.
Overall, the Astros team has a 0.346 xwOBA matchup vs. Dunning. That would be good for the Astros.
The only pitches Dunning really pitched well in 2023 were cutters to LHH and sliders to RHH. Look for him to rely on those pitches tonight.
Abreu, who is already struggling, might not do well against the Dunning Slider. Therefore, Espada calls on Singleton.
The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:
The runs model would project the Astros to score 5.5 runs today if Dunning was in the game for 9 innings.
Let's have fun tonight Astros fans.
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