This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon. To celebrate the beginning of a new season I am making these available to EVERYONE.
My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 4/5/24- Astros vs. Rangers.
I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.
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MoneyMaker: Astros Daily Lineup Analysis- 4/5/24 (youtube.com)
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Disclaimer 1- This content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.
Baseball is not a sport that lends itself to daily action. What I am doing here is nearly impossible. I am giving you the angle most can't see nor apply. THAT is part of what makes this site so unique.
Disclaimer 2- These articles are going to be blunt and reflect what the numbers say and NOT what I want nor what I hope happens. DO NOT get this confused. I am TRYING to help you in the fantasy baseball and daily fantasy space. I am not going to waste your time on what I want. I am going to tell you what the numbers say is most LIKELY.
You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide
Data- Rangers 4/5- 4/8 (larrythegm.com) for this series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.
The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data
This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.
We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.
Starting for the Astros- Hunter Brown vs. the Rangers
Today the Astros go with Brown.
Last Start- Brown was VERY GOOD in his first start but very inefficient. He gave up no ER in ONLY 4.0 IP. For us xWOBA folks, his first start was 0.296 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.319.
There is no data for Langford from 2023.
This lineup has a 0.352 xwOBA matchup vs. Brown. This is a challenge for the Astros vs. a tough Rangers lineup.
The Rangers Best Bets tonight
These would be the daily fantasy picks from the Rangers.
The runs model would project them to score 5.7 runs today if Brown was in the game for 9 innings.
Starting for the Rangers- Cody Bradford vs. the Astros
Last start- Cody Bradford gave up 2 ER in 5.0 IP. For us xWOBA folks, his first start was 0.246 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.323. He had some good luck in his first start (BABIP 0.200).
Overall, the Astros team has a 0.365 xwOBA matchup vs. Bradford. This is a typical Astros vs. LHP total.
The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:
The runs model would project the Astros to score 6.1 runs today if Bradford was in the game for 9 innings.
Let's have fun tonight Astros fans.
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