This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon.
My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 4/28/24- Astros vs. Rockies.
I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.
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Disclaimer 1- This content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.
Baseball is not a sport that lends itself to daily action. What I am doing here is nearly impossible. I am giving you the angle most can't see nor apply. THAT is part of what makes this site so unique.
Disclaimer 2- These articles are going to be blunt and reflect what the numbers say and NOT what I want nor what I hope happens. DO NOT get this confused. I am TRYING to help you in the fantasy baseball and daily fantasy space. I am not going to waste your time on what I want. I am going to tell you what the numbers say is most LIKELY.
You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Rockies- 4/27- 4/28 (larrythegm.com) for this series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.
The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data
This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.
We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.
Starting for the Astros- Framber Valdez vs. the Rockies
Framber returns from the IL and gets the Start but is probably on a 70-pitch count. This will be his third start of the year (last start 4/2).
The Rockies project as a team to hit only 0.296 xwOBA today. This is EXCELLENT for the Astros.
Valdez is a HEAVY GB pitcher and should be less affected by the altitude than any MLB pitcher.
The ONLY Rockies player projected to be a plus matchup vs. Valdez - Bouchard- has only 59 pitches (14 PA) vs. LHP in the Baseball Savant 2023 database. I don't believe it.
This set of facts will lead me to make a very bold pick today.
The Rockies batting best bet fantasy stars today are:
FRAMBER VALDEZ- LESS than 2.5 Earned Runs- (-135 on Bovada)
That's right I think Framber gives up no more than 2 ER in the 4ish innings I expect him to pitch. The issue is that in the elevation, Framber will have to rely on his sinker and his changeup and not his slider and curve. I think it will work.
The runs model would project the Rockies to score 3.9 runs today if the average pitcher was in the game for 9 innings.
Starting for the Rockies- Austin Gomber vs. the Astros
LHP Gomber gets the Start for the Rockies. His 0.293 BABIP would indicate he has been on par with luck. His 4.96 FIP vs. 4.32 ERA would also indicate a small luck component. For us xWOBA folks, his 2024 xwOBA is 0.361 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.362.
The Astros project as a team to hit 0.385 xwOBA today. The Astros SHOULD have a good hitting day.
Gomber is likely to want to pitch more sliders and knuckle curves vs. the Astros. I don't know that either will break at the elevation. I think the Astros pound Gomber.
The xwOBA numbers for Alvarez and Tucker are SKY High. The Bovada Odds are also sky high and there is currently no Total Bases for Alvarez nor Tucker. I REALLY want to bet both hit a HR again today. The Total Hits, Runs And RBI's are set at 3.5 for most Astros. They odds are stacked against us. They were yesterday too. Let's go crazy. There are no best bets here because the odds are bad.
The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:
The runs model would project the Astros to score 6.8 runs today if the starting pitcher was in the game for 9 innings.
Let's have fun today Astros fans.
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