This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon.
My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 4/25/24- Astros vs. Cubs.
I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.
Join here to watch:
We will cover Today's Money Maker as BONUS Content on the Astros Weekly Recap
NOTE THESE ARE NOW PRIVATE VIDEO LINKS FOR MONEYMAKER MEMBERS ONLY. PLEASE DO NOT SHARE.
Follow my X account at @larrythegmman for real takes.
Disclaimer 1- This content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.
Baseball is not a sport that lends itself to daily action. What I am doing here is nearly impossible. I am giving you the angle most can't see nor apply. THAT is part of what makes this site so unique.
Disclaimer 2- These articles are going to be blunt and reflect what the numbers say and NOT what I want nor what I hope happens. DO NOT get this confused. I am TRYING to help you in the fantasy baseball and daily fantasy space. I am not going to waste your time on what I want. I am going to tell you what the numbers say is most LIKELY.
You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Cubs- 4/23- 4/25 (larrythegm.com) for this series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.
The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data
This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.
We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.
Starting for the Astros- Justin Verlander vs. the Cubs
Verlander gets the Start. This will be his second start of the season.
Data includes Crow-Armstrong, but the data is set to an AVERAGE MLB player because the data set is too small.
The Cubs project as a team to hit 0.282 xwOBA today.
The data here is more for reference only to whom will have the best day for the Cubs. The Cubs best bet fantasy stars today are:
None
The runs model would project the Cubs to score 3.4 runs today if the average pitcher was in the game for 9 innings.
Starting for the Cubs- Jameson Taillon vs. the Astros
Taillon gets the Start. His 0.231 BABIP would indicate he has been very lucky. His 3.67 FIP vs. 2.11 ERA would also indicate a large lucky component. For us xWOBA folks, his 2024 xwOBA is 0.287 as compared to his 2023 xwOBA of 0.330.
The Astros project as a team to hit 0.358 xwOBA today. The Astros SHOULD have a good hitting day.
The xwOBA numbers for Alvarez and Tucker are SKY High. I am AGAIN doubling down on both.
The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:
Alvarez (0.507)- over 1.5 total bases- (+105 on Bovada)
Alvarez (0.507) - over 1.5 Total Hits, Runs And RBI's - (-145 on Bovada)- This is the LGM Pick of the Day
Tucker (0.449)- over 1.5 total bases- (NOT AVAILABLE YET on Bovada)
If total bases never becomes available Tucker (0.449)- over 0.5 total hits- (-215 on Bovada)
Tucker (0.449)- over 1.5 Total Hits, Runs And RBI's - (-135 on Bovada)
The runs model would project the Astros to score 5.9 runs today if the average pitcher was in the game for 9 innings.
Let's have fun today Astros fans.
Comments