This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon.
My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 4/20/24- Astros vs. Nationals.
I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.
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Disclaimer 1- This content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.
Baseball is not a sport that lends itself to daily action. What I am doing here is nearly impossible. I am giving you the angle most can't see nor apply. THAT is part of what makes this site so unique.
Disclaimer 2- These articles are going to be blunt and reflect what the numbers say and NOT what I want nor what I hope happens. DO NOT get this confused. I am TRYING to help you in the fantasy baseball and daily fantasy space. I am not going to waste your time on what I want. I am going to tell you what the numbers say is most LIKELY.
You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- 4/19- 4/21 (larrythegm.com) for this series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.
The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data
This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.
We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.
Starting for the Astros- Ronel Blanco vs. the Nationals
Blanco is off to a great start. His 0.118 BABIP would indicate he has been very lucky. His 2.97 FIP vs. 0.86 ERA would also indicate a large luck component. For us xWOBA folks, his 2024 xwOBA is 0.208 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.345.
Yes, the Gauntlet of offense IS truly OVER. Blanco projects to hold the Nationals to a 0.316 xwOBA. This would be great for the Astros.
The Nationals best bet fantasy stars today are: NONE
Rosario (0.360) - over 0.5 total bases- (-165 on Bovada)- the ONLY reason I suggest this is that it is a 0.5 TB bet
The runs model would project the Nationals to score 4.5 runs today if Blanco was in the game for 9 innings.
Starting for the Nationals- Trevor Williams vs. the Astros
Williams is off to a good start. His 0.286 BABIP would indicate he has been nearly luck neutral. His 2.57 FIP vs. 3.45 ERA indicates a smaller unlucky component. For us xWOBA folks, his 2024 xwOBA is 0.308 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.360.
Once again look at all of the Astros hitting RED!
The Astros project to hit 0.390 xwOBA today. Yes 0.390!!
The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:
There are plenty of other picks to consider as well.
The runs model would project the Astros to score 7.0 runs today if Williams was in the game for 9 innings.
Let's have fun today Astros fans.
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