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Writer's pictureLarryTheGM

MoneyMaker: Astros Daily Lineup Analysis- 4/19/24

This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon.


My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 4/19/24- Astros vs. Nationals.


I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.


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Disclaimer 1- This content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.

Baseball is not a sport that lends itself to daily action. What I am doing here is nearly impossible. I am giving you the angle most can't see nor apply. THAT is part of what makes this site so unique.


Disclaimer 2- These articles are going to be blunt and reflect what the numbers say and NOT what I want nor what I hope happens. DO NOT get this confused. I am TRYING to help you in the fantasy baseball and daily fantasy space. I am not going to waste your time on what I want. I am going to tell you what the numbers say is most LIKELY.



https://www.larrythegm.com/post/premium-astros-series-guide-data-4-19-4-21

You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- 4/19- 4/21 (larrythegm.com) for this series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.


The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data

This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.

We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.


Starting for the Astros- JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. the Nationals

Verlander makes his 2024 debut!

Verlander vs. Nationals

Yes, the Gauntlet of offense IS truly OVER. Verlander projects to hold the Nationals to a 0.262 xwOBA. THIS would be a total pitcher prop EXCEPT it is JV's first start.


The Nationals best bet fantasy stars today are: NONE


The runs model would project the Nationals to score 2.8 runs today if Verlander was in the game for 9 innings.



Starting for the Nationals- MacKenzie Gore vs. the Astros

Gore is off to a great start. His 0.382 BABIP would indicate he has been very unlucky. His 2.45 FIP vs. 2.81 ERA indicates a smaller luck component. For us xWOBA folks, his 2024 xwOBA is 0.296 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.347.


Is the 25-year-old way better in 2024 than last year? Maybe

Gore vs. Astros

Overall, the Astros team has a season high team 0.379 xwOBA matchup vs. Gore. Given how 2024 Start there may be a need for some caution, but look at all of the RED!


The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:

  • McCormick (0.404) - over 0.5 total bases- (-150 on Bovada)

  • Alvarez (0.448) - over 1.5 total bases- (+115 on Bovada)

  • Tucker (0.452) - over 1.5 total bases- (+135 on Bovada)

    • The LarryTheGM Pick of the Day

The runs model would project the Astros to score 6.6 runs today if Gore was in the game for 9 innings.


Let's have fun today Astros fans.

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