This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon.
My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 4/16/24- Astros vs. Braves.
I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.
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Disclaimer 1- This content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.
Baseball is not a sport that lends itself to daily action. What I am doing here is nearly impossible. I am giving you the angle most can't see nor apply. THAT is part of what makes this site so unique.
Disclaimer 2- These articles are going to be blunt and reflect what the numbers say and NOT what I want nor what I hope happens. DO NOT get this confused. I am TRYING to help you in the fantasy baseball and daily fantasy space. I am not going to waste your time on what I want. I am going to tell you what the numbers say is most LIKELY.
You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Braves 4/15- 4/17 (larrythegm.com) for this series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.
The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data
This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.
We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.
Atlanta announced this: https://x.com/Braves/status/1780319997371281456
I will say this the offenses are GREAT. Do with that what you will.
Starting for the Astros- Hunter Brown vs. the Braves
Brown is off to a terrible start. His 0.583 BABIP would indicate he has been terribly unlucky. His 7.27 FIP vs. 16.43 ERA confirms that. For us xWOBA folks, his 2024 xwOBA is 0.436 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.319. He is not this bad.
Overall, the Braves team has a decent 0.347 xwOBA matchup vs. Brown.
The Braves best bet fantasy stars today are:
The runs model would project the Braves to score 5.6 runs today if Brown was in the game for 9 innings.
Starting for the Braves- Reynaldo Lopez vs. the Astros
Lopez is off to a great start. His 0.241 BABIP would indicate he has been lucky. His 2.64 FIP vs. 0.75 ERA confirms that. For us xWOBA folks, his 2024 xwOBA is 0.255 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.309.
Overall, the Astros team has a mediocre 0.337 xwOBA matchup vs. Lopez. The Astros seem committed to a semi platoon of Singleton and Abreu.
The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:
The runs model would project the Astros to score 5.2 runs today if Lopez was in the game for 9 innings.
Let's have fun today Astros fans.
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