This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon.
My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 4/14/24- Astros vs. Rangers.
I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.
Video at 12:30PM
It will be a series AND Daily Lineup review.
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Disclaimer 1- This content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.
Baseball is not a sport that lends itself to daily action. What I am doing here is nearly impossible. I am giving you the angle most can't see nor apply. THAT is part of what makes this site so unique.
Disclaimer 2- These articles are going to be blunt and reflect what the numbers say and NOT what I want nor what I hope happens. DO NOT get this confused. I am TRYING to help you in the fantasy baseball and daily fantasy space. I am not going to waste your time on what I want. I am going to tell you what the numbers say is most LIKELY.
You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Rangers 4/12- 4/14 (larrythegm.com) for this series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.
The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data
This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.
We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.
Starting for the Astros- Cristian Javier vs. the Rangers
Ronel Blanco is off to an excellent start. His 0.217 BABIP would warn us he has been lucky (career 0.241). This is validated by a 3.31 FIP vs. his 1.10 ERA.
For us xWOBA folks, his 2024 xwOBA is 0.300 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.323. Javier is throwing WAY MORE change ups than before 29.6% vs. 4.1% last year. A batter that struggles with change ups is out.
Overall, the Rangers team has a 0.353 xwOBA matchup vs. Javier. That would be not good for the Astros, but he has been a different pitcher than last year.
The Rangers best bet fantasy stars today are:
The runs model would project the Rangers to score 5.7 runs today if Javier was in the game for 9 innings. He is pitching better than this.
Starting for the Rangers- Nathan Eovaldi vs. the Astros
Nathan Eovaldi is off to a great start. His 0.233 BABIP would indicate he has been lucky. His 2.71 FIP vs. 1.45 ERA confirms that. For us xWOBA folks, his 2024 xwOBA is 0.233 (0.099 wOBA) vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.249.
Eovaldi is a great pitcher. Just not this great.
McCormick returns to the lineup.
Overall, the Astros team has a good 0.352 xwOBA matchup vs. Dunning. The Astros miss two very productive bats today and the overall lineup suffers some.
The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:
Note: No Tucker today
The runs model would project the Astros to score 5.2 runs today if Eovaldi was in the game for 9 innings.
Let's have fun today Astros fans.
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