This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon.
My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 4/13/24- Astros vs. Rangers.
I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.
Video at 2:15PM
It will be a series AND Daily Lineup review.
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Disclaimer 1- This content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.
Baseball is not a sport that lends itself to daily action. What I am doing here is nearly impossible. I am giving you the angle most can't see nor apply. THAT is part of what makes this site so unique.
Disclaimer 2- These articles are going to be blunt and reflect what the numbers say and NOT what I want nor what I hope happens. DO NOT get this confused. I am TRYING to help you in the fantasy baseball and daily fantasy space. I am not going to waste your time on what I want. I am going to tell you what the numbers say is most LIKELY.
You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Rangers 4/12- 4/14 (larrythegm.com) for this series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.
The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data
This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.
We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.
Starting for the Astros- Ronel Blanco vs. the Rangers
Ronel Blanco is off to AMAZING start. His 0.029 BABIP would warn us he has been EXTREMELY lucky. This is validated by a great 2.99 FIP vs. his 0.00 ERA.
Astros fans would love a pitching only giving up 3 runs in 9 innings.
For us xWOBA folks, his 2024 xwOBA is 0.180 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.345. Blanco is throwing WAY MORE change ups than before 32.8% vs. 9.0% last year. A batter that struggles with change ups is out.
Overall, the Rangers team has a 0.365 xwOBA matchup vs. Blanco. That would be bad for the Astros, but Blanco has been a different pitcher than last year.
The Rangers best bet fantasy stars today are:
The runs model would project the Rangers to score 6.1 runs today if Blanco was in the game for 9 innings. He is pitching better than this.
Also note, Shawn Dubin returns from IL and a short rehab and Joel Kuhnel was optioned back to AAA after his 52 pitches yesterday.
Starting for the Rangers- Andrew Heaney vs. the Astros
Andrew Heaney is off to a challenging start. His 0.292 BABIP would indicate he has been on the mean. However, a huge 4.45 FIP to 7.56 ERA is perplexing. For us xWOBA folks, his 2024 xwOBA is 0.296 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.327.
I can't say with much certainty who Andrew Heaney appears to be early in 2024.
Lineup Note per Chandler Rome from yesterday.
That is why McCormick and Bregman are out.
Overall, the Astros team has a good 0.352 xwOBA matchup vs. Dunning. The Astros miss two very productive bats today and the overall lineup suffers some.
The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:
The runs model would project the Astros to score 5.7 runs today if Heaney was in the game for 9 innings.
Let's have fun tonight Astros fans.
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