MoneyMaker: Astros Daily Lineup Analysis- 4/11/24

This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon.

My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 4/11/24- Astros vs. Royals.

I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.

I have a doctor's appointment today, so there will be no video today.

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Disclaimer 1- This content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.

Baseball is not a sport that lends itself to daily action. What I am doing here is nearly impossible. I am giving you the angle most can't see nor apply. THAT is part of what makes this site so unique.

Disclaimer 2- These articles are going to be blunt and reflect what the numbers say and NOT what I want nor what I hope happens. DO NOT get this confused. I am TRYING to help you in the fantasy baseball and daily fantasy space. I am not going to waste your time on what I want. I am going to tell you what the numbers say is most LIKELY.

You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Royals 4/9- 4/11 (larrythegm.com) for this series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.

The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data

This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.

We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.

Note: I am having to put this out prior to the lineups being announced. Consider the bench folks if I don't have it right.

Starting for the Astros- Hunter Brown vs. the Royals

Hunter Brown is off to a challenging start. His 0.458 BABIP would indicate he was very unlucky. This is validated by a 5.35 FIP vs. his 6.43 ERA. For us xWOBA folks, his 2024 xwOBA is 0.374 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.319.

Overall, the Astros team has a 0.354 xwOBA matchup vs. Brown. That would be another challenge for the Astros.

The Royals best bet fantasy stars today are:

• Velazquez (0.440) - over 0.5 Total Bases (-150 on Bovada)

• Pasquantino (0.392) - over 0.5 Total Bases (-185 on Bovada)

The runs model would project the Royals to score 5.8 runs today if Brown was in the game for 9 innings.

Starting for the Royals- Brady Singer vs. the Astros

Brady Singer is off to a challenging start. His 0.458 BABIP would indicate he was very unlucky. This is validated by a 5.35 FIP vs. his 6.43 ERA. For us xWOBA folks, his 2024 xwOBA is 0.374 vs. a 2023 average xwOBA of 0.319.

Overall, the Astros team has a 0.356 xwOBA matchup vs. Singer. That would be very good for the Astros bats. Both sides have nearly the same predicted xwOBA today.

The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:

• Alvarez (0.495) - over 1.5 total bases- (+110 on Bovada)

  • This is the LarryTheGM pick of the day. Pick Alvarez as many ways you can today.

  • Also Alvarez to hit HR- (+280 on Bovada)

• Tucker (0.418) - over 1.5 total bases- (+150 on Bovada)

The runs model would project the Astros to score 5.9 runs today if Singer was in the game for 9 innings.

Let's have fun tonight Astros fans.