This will be a daily installment for the MoneyMaker subscribers- either on the LarryTheGM site or on Patreon. To celebrate the beginning of a new season I am making these available to EVERYONE.
My job in the MoneyMaker space is to give you a potential edge in the odds market that you may choose to put some action on. Here is my daily Astros MoneyMaker lineup analysis for 3/29/24- Astros vs. Yankees.
I do not believe there is ANYONE else doing this analysis for you. Check it out.
I will go live at 5PM to analyze the lineups and share what we have here.
Disclaimer 1- This content is intended to help give you possible ideas you might use to place sports wagers in areas where doing so IS legal. There is no guarantee of results implied. Use these recommendations at your own risk. NEVER gamble what you can't afford to lose.
Baseball is not a sport that lends itself to daily action. What I am doing here is nearly impossible. I am giving you the angle most can't see nor apply. THAT is part of what makes this site so unique.
Disclaimer 2- These articles are going to be blunt and reflect what the numbers say and NOT what I want nor what I hope happens. DO NOT get this confused. I am TRYING to help you in the fantasy baseball and daily fantasy space. I am not going to waste your time on what I want. I am going to tell you what the numbers say is most LIKELY.
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You also may want to check out the Premium Astros Series Guide Data- Yankees (larrythegm.com) for the Yankees series. This will be available at the lower premium price level and to all Patreon members. This article helps set the foundation for the revolutionary thing we do with that data to give you the MoneyMaker edge below.
The MoneyMaker Daily Lineup Analysis Data
This data will be set with the 2023 xwOBA data. We will consider updating to the 2024 current season data in June when there is enough of a database for it.
We focus the data on starters vs. the other team's lineups. League average wOBA 0.319.
Starting for the Astros- Christian Javier vs. the Yankees
Today the Astros go with Javier. What will be very interesting is the last two in the Yankees order vs. the RHPs.
Wells (LHH) is a much better matchup vs. RHP and is terrible vs. LHP. His matchup is best vs. Hunter Brown (more fastballs). The Yankees go with Wells today. Will they do the same tomorrow too?
Berti (RHH) is a better matchup vs. RHP than SHH Cabrera. The Yankees traded for Berti to play him most days I think. The Yankees stuck with Cabrera today, so maybe Berti is not ready to play yet.
This lineup has a 0.353 xwOBA matchup vs. Javier. This is challenging for the Astros.
Javier is probably not a great choice in Daily fantasy today.
Some of the Yankees stars should have big days.
Judge 0.476
Soto 0.428
Wells 0.403
These would be the daily fantasy picks from the Yankees.
The runs model would project the Yankees to score 5.5 runs today if Javier was in the game for 9 innings. Based on the bullpen usage yesterday the Astros really want Javier to give them 5+ inning today and/or the Astros bats to score often.
Starting for the Yankees- Carlos Rodón vs. the Astros
Carlos Rodón was terrible for the Yankees last year. His 6.85 ERA was significantly worse than his 5.79 FIP which was an F grade as well. His fastball got hammered by both LHH and RHH. How does he matchup vs. the Astros?
The Astros team has a 0.377 xwOBA matchup vs. Rodón. This is EXCELLENT for the Astros.
Look at all of the red in the column to the right.
The Astros best bet fantasy stars today are:
Tucker 0.433
Alvarez 0.428
McCormick 0.412
A lineup note- notice McCormick is ahead of Diaz. Will be interesting if that is the norm or if the standard plan vs. LHP. Notice Diaz was also not great vs. LHP power speed last year too.
The runs model would project the Astros to score 6.5 runs today if Rodon was in the game for 9 innings. This says he will be lucky to pitch 4 innings tonight.
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