Uncover the real impact of MLB trades with unbiased evaluations. Dive into the 2024 MLB Trade Grades and see which deals truly stack up.
I have been asked about my opinion of the trades that have happened so far in the MLB, and I decided to grade the trades occurring across the MLB because I believe most baseball media outlets will immediately praise almost every deal as a sign of team's commitment and a sure sign they will be propelled into the postseason. This is NOT always true.
There are MANY bad trades or trades that don't do anything for either team. As with most topics we cover here, I am going to try to evaluate the 2024 MLB Deadline trades objectively.
For each player traded I documented the following:
age
position
free agent year
BaseballTradeValues.com (BTV) trade value
Cumulative WAR projected while under team control (last blue column)
remaining 2024 WAR (Orange columns)
ZIPs 3-year projected WARs for 2025 and 2026 (For MLB players under team control in 2027, the 2027 WAR is set equal to the 2026 WAR) (Orange columns)
Prospect's projected WARs are built from their Fangraph's prospect ratings per the light green table below. (Darker Green columns in master chart)
This is an estimate built on WAR distribution currently in the population of MLB players.
This varies based on the position of a prospect (position player, starting pitcher, relief pitcher, swing pitcher)
While these numbers may appear to be very low, they reflect the nature of prospects and the limited starting jobs in the MLB.
Prospect's WAR accumulates starting the year defined as their ETA
WAR values for future years are discounted by 5% per year
I graded each trade based on the BTV differential and the projected cumulative WAR differential thusly.
Here are the details of the trades.
Here is just summary and grades for each trade.
As you can see many of the trades are very even by at least one of the two methods.
Some exceptions
Puk trade was an overpay by Arizona per the BTV
Eflin trade was an underpay by Baltimore per the BTV and my projected WAR value
Hays trade was a slight overpay by Philadelphia per my projected WAR value
Stanek trade was a significant overpay by Mets my projected WAR value
Arozarena trade was an underpay by Seattle my projected WAR value
Chisholm trade depends on the other prospects in the deal
I will update these as more trades happen.
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