Step into the world of CFP Chaos as we delve into the potential scenarios and wild outcomes that could shake up the College Football Playoff.
After Week 6, one thing seems to be coming clearer. The Power conferences' ability to crown an undisputed champion to send to the College Football Playoff (CFP) may be far more difficult than we might have thought, and this potentially could lead to chaos for the CFP committee.
Let me take you conference by conference and show you the most likely projected standings as projected by the ESPN.com matchup predictor. First a disclaimer. This will change. Every week from this point forward COULD help eliminate more pretenders and have the true contenders step forward. But today, dream with me a little and marvel at this chaos.
ACC
The ESPN matchup predictor projects
Miami (12-0, 8-0)
Clemson (11-1, 8-0)
SMU (11-1,8-0)
All finish with perfect records in the ACC.
Since these three do not play each other and will all three be perfect against common conference opponents, the tie breakers COULD come down to:
Combined win-percentage of conference opponents.
The tied team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games.
The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the Commissioner of Commissioner’s designee.
What if Miami is ranked 3rd in this scenario but their "Combined win-percentage of conference opponents" is worse than Clemson and SMU? Won't that be fun to have a say 9th ranked SMU to get the 3rd seed in the CFP and Miami to get the 5th seed and Clemson to be shut out of the CFP because they lose on a fluke last minute play in the ACC Championship game? Fun times are ahead but we are just getting started.
Big Ten
A similar situation is brewing in the Big Ten. Four teams are currently undefeated in the Big Ten.
Ohio State (#2)
Oregon (#3)
Penn State (#4)
Indiana (#18)
Ohio State plays all three of the other teams, but none of the three play each other. Oregon, Penn St., and Indiana all could finish tied for second at 11-1 and have only lost to the same team. The ESPN matchup predictor shows ALL of that is the most likely outcome except it has Penn State losing barely at USC this weekend. Vegas does not agree with that.
Once again, the tiebreakers to determine who faces Ohio St. in the Big Ten CCG would come down to:
Best Big Ten winning percentage of conference opponents
Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics after the regular season
Random draw of tied teams
What if Penn State loses in overtime, Oregon loses by 10, and Indiana loses by 24?
Imagine a world where Oregon still wins the Tie Breakers after that and loses to Ohio State a second time by 14. How would these Big Ten Schools get seeded?
Cue up the fan bases rioting.
SEC
Again, a similar situation is brewing in the SEC after multiple upset last weekend. Nine teams are currently ranked but several play each other. The SEC CCG invites are likely to come down to:
Can Texas win out? Huge contests with OU, Georgia and Texas A&M are still ahead.
Texas A&M has a relatively easy schedule with their hardest games remaining - Texas and LSU at home.
Alabama can win out too. Tennessee, LSU, and OU are all on the road ahead.
Georgia has pivotal games at Texas on 10/19 at Ole Miss on 11/9 and with Tennessee on 11/16 at home. They can get in by winning at least 2 of 3.
LSU has a chance.
Based on the ESPN Matchup Predictor the SEC finishes the regular season with the following at the top.
Texas 12-0 (8-0)
Alabama 11-1 (7-1- loss to Vandy)
Ole Miss 11-1 (7-1- loss to Kentucky, beats Georgia according to matchup predictor)
Texas A&M 10-2 (7-1- loss to Texas)
Mizzou 10-2 (6-2)
Georgia 9-3 (5-3)
Tennessee 9-3 (5-3)
LSU 8-4 (5-3)
Once again, the tiebreakers to determine who faces Texas in the SEC CCG would come down to:
Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among the tied teams.
Capped relative scoring margin versus all conference opponents among the tied teams. Formula will include a cap of 42 points scored on offense and 48 points allowed on defense.
Random draw of tied teams
There is a reason Alabama put 41 points on Georgia. What if Alabama wins this tie breaker and wins the SEC CCG?
How would these SEC Schools get seeded?
Cue up the fan bases rioting.
Big 12
If you think the other conferences are a challenge, the Big 12 is telling you hold my beer.
After the Saturday games, I called into Gleg Flugar's Peek Around the Corner game watch podcast, and he brought up the possibility that the Big 12 will NOT get the #4 seed and the bye. Is that possible? VERY
I went through game-by-game in the Big 12 (see detail table at the bottom). I made an adjustment with the ESPN Matchup Predictor to these games:
Kansas State a 50.9%-win projection loses at West Virginia on 10/19.
West Virginia a 51.4%- win projection loses at Arizona on 10/26.
Arizona State a 56%-win projection at home vs. UCF loses on 11/9.
Colorado a 60.8%- win projection at home vs. Utah loses on 11/16.
Colorado a 51.6%- win projection loses back-to-back by losing at Kansas on 11/23.
While the Utah "upset" looks more unlikely than the other games, Colorado might have injuries that facilitate the Utah and the Kansas loses.
If every other game follows the ESPN Matchup predictor the Big 12 would look like THIS.
Iowa State rolls to 12-0 and their spot in the Big 12 CCG.
There would be a SEVEN-way tie for second place.
The Big 12 Tie Breaker Procedure Multiple-Team Ties (per the Big 12 website)
In the event of a tie between more than two teams, the following procedures will be used. After one team has an advantage and is “seeded”, all remaining teams in the multiple team tiebreaker will repeat the tie-breaking procedure. If at any point the multiple-team tie is reduced to two teams, the two-team tie-breaking procedure will be applied.
a. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage in games among the tied teams:
1. If all teams involved in the tie did not play each other, but one team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, the team that defeated all other teams in the tie is removed from the tiebreaker, and the remaining teams revert to the beginning of the applicable tiebreaker process (i.e., two team or three or more team tie).
2. If all teams involved in the tie did not play each other and no team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, move to the next step in tiebreaker.
b. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents played by all other teams involved in the tie.
c. Record of the three (or more) tied teams against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams.
d. Record of the three (or more) tied teams based on combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (i.e., strength of conference schedule)
e. Total number of wins in a 12-game season. The following conditions will apply to the calculation of the total number of wins: Only one win against a team from the NCAA Football Championship Subdivision or lower division will be counted annually. Any games that are exempted from counting against the annual maximum number of football contests per NCAA rules. (Current Bylaw 17.10.5.2.1) shall not be included.
f. Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the last weekend of regular-season games.
g. Coin toss
I think rule "a" is still not properly worded. Here is what I think happens.
They will evaluate the records of the seven against each other.
Utah 2-1 (W: BYU, @Colorado; L: @UCF)
WVU 2-1 (W: KSU, UCF; L: @TxTech)
Colorado 2-2 (W: @UCF, @TxTech; L: KSU, Utah)
UCF 2-2 (W: BYU, Utah; L: Colorado, @WVU)
Texas Tech 1-1 (W: WVU; L: Colorado)
KSU 1-2 (W: @Colorado; L: @BYU, @WVU)
BYU 1-2 (W: KSU; L: @UCF, @Utah)
Then I think the Big 12 will execute "Win percentage against all common conference opponents among the tied teams"- evaluating just 2-1 Utah and 2-1 WVU
Utah 1-3 (W: OkSt; L: Arizona, ISU, @UCF)
WVU 2-2 (W: @OkSt, UCF; L: Arizona, ISU)
I THINK WVU with a 7-5 overall record and 6-3 Big 12 record would be in the Big 12 conference championship.
Now let's get really funky. What if 7-5 WVU BEATS 12-0 ISU in Arlington?
In this wild scenario the Big 12 CCG winner COULD have FIVE loses. FIVE. They would NOT get the #4 seed and the bye.
You may say "can't they just keep WVU out?" No. Per the CFP website
"The 12 participating teams will be the five conference champions ranked highest by the CFP selection committee, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams."
Group of 5
What if Boise St. just won out (they are favored to) and finished 11-1 with the loss being at Oregon 34-37?
Independents
What if Notre Dame beats Army and Navy and USC? They are #11 now but being ranked #8 is not out of the question in this.
Good luck to the CFP committee with this.
In this wild scenario here are my guess at the CFP seeds:
Ohio State (#1- (13-0)- Win B1G CCG)
Alabama (#2- (12-1)- Win SEC CCG)
SMU (#9- (12-1)- Win ACC CCG)
Boise State (#10- (13-0)- Win MW CCG)
Miami (#3- (12-0)- ACC)
Penn State (#4- (11-1)- B1G)
Texas (#5- (12-1)- Lose SEC CCG)
Ole Miss (#6- (11-1)- SEC)
Oregon (#7- (11-2)- Lose B1G CCG)
Notre Dame (#8- (12-1)- Independent)
Iowa State (#11- (12-1)- Lose B12 CCG)
West Virginia (#25 ?- (8-5)- Win B12 CCG)
Out
#12 Clemson (11-2) Lose ACC CCG
#13 Indiana (11-1)
#14 Texas A&M (10-2)
#15 Georgia (9-3)
#16 Kansas State (9-3)
#17 Mizzou (10-2)
If this chaos happens (it won't), the 12-team playoff will get off to a rocky start.
The Big 12 will claim that their conference is being disrespected with no top 4 seed. People will laugh.
The ACC will ask why their CCG loser is the only "Power 4" CCG loser being left out.
I can hear Sankey and Petitti now.
The Big Ten is pissed that 11-1 Indiana with wins against Nebraska, Washington, and Michigan (all projected) is not in the CFP and Notre Dame, Iowa State, and West Virginia are all in.
The SEC is pissed that Texas A&M, Georgia, and Mizzou are all frozen out when Sankey will claim all three would beat #8 - #12 and Vegas will confirm they would be favored.
THIS is the type of scenario that WILL push the SEC and B1G to demand 4 auto seeds each. They will point to strength of schedules and say there really are only two Power conferences and THEY deserve the auto seeds because their conferences are so much tougher. People will mock them.
The looming chaos with the 12-team CFP will be the only thing more dismissive than politics in the fall of 2024. Welcome to the future.
