Folks, this is going to be the BOLDEST positive call I have made on this site.
The former MVP is showing signs of his former self. I think he is back and the results are eminent.
I know that is a BOLD statement to make about a batter that has a 50 wRC+ and a 0.537 OPS.
I promised you I would be looking for positive signs and I have.
Since hitting the Home Run, Jose Abreu has an average exit velocity of 95.3 mph. That simple fact does not mean much to you without context.
His average exit velocity for the last four years has been 92 mph. It was 87 in March/April and 88 in May. That is a massive drop off and one of the things that REALLY bothered me with the Abreu data.
Let me show this to you on a per PA graph. For this graph, I have calculated a rolling 10 PA average. You can see the exit velocity has skyrocketed.
Let me show you the same data on a daily basis.
With 3-4 batted balls per game, this average will move slower than the first graph, but you see that the trendline is definitely up.
With the same daily data let's look at the xwOBA data trend.
The xwOBA data trend is up with the exit velocity data. One may point to the late April surge in the xwOBA average as noise and ask how we know it isn't noise now. We don't. EXCEPT the exit velocity data was still very low during the first surge.
Here is a more complete data set for the last four seasons and the three months.
I think this is a situation where we see:
The exit velocity increase first;
The xwOBA surge second; and
The OPS and on field results follow.
In what I have shown here we are seeing steps 1 and 2. It is time to see step 3 NOW. I will continue to track this data.
Jose Abreu, it is time for you to see the benefits of your reported hard work! Folks, I believe he is BACK.
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LIke to hear this. I have read that Abreu is a slow starter. Can’t imagine he started this slow before, but has this year followed a similar path to prior years when Abreu hit well? Also, just curious - where have you seen reports of Abreu putting in work?