Discover how the Astros can strategically manage their finances to extend Bregman and Tucker while staying within their suggested limits.
I have for over two years WARNED this Astros fan base and the team itself to adopt a financially strategic model which COULD lead to signing Altuve, Bregman, AND Tucker.
THIS is why at the core I did not like the JV trade, the Abreu signing, the Montero re-signing, and the Hader signing.
Each of these transactions could be justified for their individual impact, BUT none of them are more valuable to me than the impact of KEEPING Alex Bregman AND Kyle Tucker for the next three years.
So, where do I think the Astros are now post trade deadline and looking forward to the 2025 season? I called 2025 the year of Financial Armagedón for the Astros. Let me walk you the walk you through the valley of tough decisions (many you WILL NOT LIKE) that lies ahead. The prize of making decisions similar to this is that the Astros WILL be able to extend both Bregman and Tucker and stay within the financial limits they have suggested they have.
Let's start with the immediate bad news that is the consequence of things that have already happened in the 2024 season:
First, there is a financial upside of the Verlander injury in 2024. He WILL NOT reach 140 IP in 2024, and his player option WILL NOT vest. I do not think he will be back. This may seem like a strange position to take - being happy that Verlander will not return for 2025. You may understand later.
Second, the nightmare of the Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero will live on in 2025 for a combined $31M payroll cost.
Jose Urquidy, who will be a Free Agent after the 2025 season, has had yet another setback and had Tommy John surgery in June which may mean that he does not even pitch in 2025. I think the Astros will NOT tender arbitration for Urquidy this offseason. This move saves $4-7M.
Oddly, the mediocre years from McCormick and Dubon clarifies that the team will try to trade both to teams willing to tender each arbitration in their Arb 2 years. I do not think the Astros are that team. These moves would save $6-9M.
Three months ago, I would have assumed Urquidy, McCormick, and Dubon would be on the 2025 Astros. In a world where the team has Arrighetti, France, Blanco, Kouba, Blubaugh, Gordon, and Gusto; I do not think the Astros will invest the resources in Urquidy. In a world where the team has Dezenzo, Whitcomb, Leon, and Melton; I do not think the Astros will invest the resources in Dubon nor McCormick.
Overall, all of these together cut my payroll expectation for the Astros in 2025 by $27-33M.
At the end of this path, IF the Astros follow this plan, I will give you a roster that does the seemingly impossible. This roster WILL include the following:
Alex Bregman re-signs
Kyle Tucker extends AFTER agreeing to a 2025 Arbitration number
Bryan Abreu extends AFTER agreeing to a 2026 Arbitration number
Yainer Diaz extends AFTER agreeing to a 2026 Arbitration number
You are probably excited and have multiple World Series trophies circling in your mind. Hold on partner.
The following will also be payroll casualties from the current roster:
Aledmys Diaz
Kendall Graveman
Yusei Kikuchi
Caleb Ferguson
Maybe none of that matters to you if I tell you this scenario KEEPS Bregman AND Tucker.
Here are the details of the payroll for the next few years.
The MAJOR Deals:
Re-sign Bregman in November- $120M/ 5Yr (2025-2029)- Altuve got $125M/ 5Yr. I do NOT think based on the current Free Agent market that Bregman gets more than 5 years from anyone. I can show you why some other time.
My Deal 2025(31)- $30M, 2026(32)- $30M, 2027(33)- $25M, 2028(34)- $20M, 2029(35)- $15M
AAV- $24M
2. Valdez ARB 3- 2025- $22M- the final ride with Framber, Free Agent after the 2025 season
3. Tucker ARB 3- 2025- $22M- THEN $224M/ 8Yr (2026-2033)
My Deal 2026(29)- $30M, 2027(30)- $30M, 2028(31)- $30M, 2029(32)- $30M, 2030(33)- $28M, 2031(34)- $28M, 2032(35)- $24M, 2033(36)- $24M
AAV- $28M
4. Abreu ARB 2- 2025- $4M- THEN $78M/ 5Yr (2026-2030)
My Deal 2026(29)- $10M, 2027(30)- $17M, 2028(31)- $17M, 2029(32)- $17M, 2030(33)- $17M
AAV- $15.6M
5. Diaz Pre- ARB 2025- $68M/ 5Yr (2026-2030)
My Deal 2026(27)- $8M, 2027(28)- $15M, 2028(29)- $15M, 2029(30)- $15M, 2030(31)- $15M
Doing this deal early and buying out all of Yainer Diaz's Arb years reduces the cost.
These deals would facilitate the Astros championship window to remain open for years!
The payroll for the next few years
2024- $259.7M (OVER CBT2- $257M)
2025- $259M (UNDER CBT2- $261M)
2026- $237.7M (UNDER CBT1- $244M)
2027- $243.3M
Here is what the 40-man roster would look like for 2025.
That is a team that can continue to contend. No, it is not the 2019 Astros. It IS very close to the 2024 Astros, maybe better.
This is my plan for the Astros financially for the next two years. It does require making hard choices and committing to youth for the bench and bullpen.
There are weaknesses with this plan. In 2025, until Melton is ready the lineup might have a hole in LF. The depth is diminished. There is no guarantee that any of the younger guys are ready. This team won the World Series with Maldonado in the lineup. Do not forget that.
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