Get ready for the 2024 College Football Season with Preview and Predictions for the Big XII. Who exceeds expectations and who fails. What Big 12 teams will make the CFP? Check out the detailed season predictions!
The 2024 season will be a whole new world for college football fans. One and maybe even two losses will not ruin your team's chances to make the new 12-team College Football Playoff.
Over the next two days we will go conference by conference to give you my predictions for how each team will end the season and the detail for every team vying to be in the top 25 and ultimately in the CFP.
Next up is the Big XII - Texas and Oklahoma are gone and the Four Corner Schools are in. There has been a lot of change in the Big 12 and more may still be coming.
I have created a system to generate projections for every team given their schedule and relative team strengths. I will also create an index post for you to access everything from. Here are links to the other FBS Conferences. (Added when published).
SEC Preview and Predictions - 2024
Here is my prediction for the final Big 12 standings in 2024. In these conference standings I have also added the Vegas Over/ Under Win totals for you to compare to.
I expect chaos in this conference all the way to the last week of the season.
I have Arizona's talent helping them blow away expectations and finishing 10-2. In what is going to be a wild quirk in conference standings on of the two losses for Arizona will be Kansas State early in the season, BUT that loss will NOT count as a conference game. KSU and Arizona kept their previously scheduled game and therefore this game is not a conference game for either. Utah has the same situation with Baylor in week 2.
This means that Arizona will officially be 8-1 in conference play and will win be in first place in the conference.
I have Kansas and Kansas State both at 10-2 and 6-2 in the conference. Since I have KSU beating KU in Week 9, KSU will go to the Conference Championship Game to win the opportunity to play in the CFP.
Now let's give you the game-by-game projected results for each team I think will make the final CFP committee top 25 and others that are ranked in the AP Top 25 now.
In these detailed season predictions, for each game you can see:
The opponent
Home / Away / or neutral site
Whether the opponent is a Power 2, Mid 2, Group of 5, or FCS or below opponent.
The preseason over/under projected by Vegas for each opponent
My projected point spread for the game. You can use this as a guide for action if you want.
I have a home field advantage built into my model prediction.
I will periodically post the actual results in these tables on the right.
For the season you can see
The Projected Win total of that team's opponents by adding the over/ under for each opponent. This is like a traditional Strength of Schedule.
A WEIGHTED Projected Win total that factors in also the level of each opponent. This is my Strength of Schedule
A season projected win-loss prediction
I KNOW ACC and Big 12 fans will hate this. I think it is the reality of how the CFP Committe will think of relative conference records. I know it is a simplification to correct for teams that schedule a lot of lower division cupcakes. Fans hated when I told them that the SEC and B1G will have between 7 to 9 teams in the CFP every year. Don't hate the messenger because you don't like the message.
For the CCG and CFP teams I also show the projected post regular season games including their projected CFP Seeding.
Sometimes the projected point spread is less than one. In these cases, I gave the win to team even if the margin was +0.01.
I have the Big 12 with SEVEN teams ranked between 13 and 28. There could be a tie at 6-3 for many teams. You will see that I am predicting a plethora of close games. Here is how I see the Big XII teams.
The Big XII Championship could be epic. The system shows a 1–2-point win for Kansas State.
Arizona - #19 CFP Standings / Not in the CFP
Kansas - #22 CFP Standings / Not in the CFP
Utah - #23 CFP Standings / Not in the CFP
Iowa State - #25 CFP Standings / Not in the CFP
Oklahoma State - NR in CFP Standings (#27 estimated)/ Not in the CFP
West Virginia - NR in CFP Standings (#28 estimated) / Not in CFP
So, leave a comment on your bold predictions for your Big 12 team in the comments below,
Coming soon here at LarryTheGM
My predictions for the full top 25
My CFP Predictions
Conference-by-conference season standing predictions for the other conferences.
Altogether, you will have predictions for the entire FBS
Data from ESPN, Pro Football Focus, Vegas Insiders, NCAA.com
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