"Lunch with Larry" is going to be "Lineups with Larry" and we will go live on YouTube at 4PM or shortly after.
We will review the daily guide update to show the lineup of the day and talk about what is interesting in the daily matchup.
Today's "Lineups with Larry"
Game 5 preview
Today's Lineups
The Phillies are going with their Game 2 Lineup against LHP Valdez. He significantly outperformed these matchups in that game.
Segura and Sosa do not have suffient data vs. the Cutter. For Segura I used his overall xwOBA.
The Astros added Korey Lee and took the injured Gurriel off the roster.
- Alvarez is in LF
- Vazquez is at DH
- Mancini is at 1B
- Lee will serve as the backup catcher. For those that do not know Lee was RED HOT in AAA after being sent down.
Setting the Stage for Game 6
The Astros can win it all tonight. The Phillies are throwing their Ace who MIGHT have a dead arm.
SET YOU DVR TO RECORD TONIGHT!
Planned Starters for the Series
The big story lines tonight.
How long can Wheeler go?
Will the Phillies get to Valdez?
How will Astros do without Yuli?
Houston
6- Framber AND Brown and Garcia
7- Javier (Short rest) AND LMJ
Each game they have at least TWO SP ready
Philadelphia
6- Wheeler- Is he even healthy / Suarez/ Gibson
7- Nola (Short rest) and Suarez
The Astros SP depth is a HUGE advantage.
The key thing to watch for tonight is how much and who from the Phillies bullpen is used tonight. Philadelphia has relied on a bullpen that has over performed and ready to shed runs. (Read that article if you don't believe me.) I do not think they can afford for Wheeler if he struggles.
The Classes of the Phillies Bullpen
First Class | Coach | Economy |
Dominguez | Bellatti | Hand? |
Alvarado | Brogdon | Nelson |
Efflin | Gibson | |
Robertson | | |
One may think this is way too harsh on Brad Hand. Second half of season Brad Hand has been (5.49 FIP) worse than economy.
Setting the stage for Game 5
Starting Pitching Matchup
Tonight is the night for ALVAREZ and Tucker to rake early before the RP take over.
Overall it is a favorable match up but take it player by player and Valdez has a pitch to use
- Schwarber- Curve
- Hoskins- Curve
- Realmuto- Changeup
- Harper- maybe sinker- dangerous matchup
- Castellanos- Curve, Changeup, Cutter
- Bohm- Changeup, Cutter
- Segura- Curve and Changeup
- Vierling- Curve and Cutter
- Sosa- 4-seam FB and Changeup
Expect few "fastballs" 4 seam FB, some Cutters
Pitching/ Bullpen Status
Astros will TRY to stay away from Pressly unless it is a one run lead in the 9th. Rest of bullpen is likely available.Brown, Garcia, Urquidy, and possibly even LMJ can pitch if needed.
Phillies- How long can Wheeler go? Suarez, Gibson, and Nelson may see action early. Alvarado pitched 49 pitches in games 4 and 5. They may use Suarez instead of Alvarado for Valdez, Bregman, Tucker before the 7th.
If this game goes to extra innings it is a HUGE advantage to the Astros- Gibson and Nelson vs. Garcia and Urquidy.
Matchup prediction of who will be hot tonight
Houston- Alvarez and Tucker
Philadelphia- Hoskins, Realmuto, and Bohm
Send me your predictions for Game 6
Can the Astros win it all tonight? We shall see!
For more detail read
Matchup Matrixes
Astros
C- Martín Maldonado, Christian Vázquez, Korey Lee (added)
IF- Yuli Gurriel (out), Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña, Alex Bregman, David Hensley
OF- Yordan Alvarez, Chas McCormick, Kyle Tucker, Mauricio Dubón
Util/DH- Trey Mancini, Aledmys Díaz
SP- Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier
RP- Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero, Héctor Neris, Ryne Stanek, Bryan Abreu, Will Smith
LR- Hunter Brown, José Urquid, yLuis Garcia
Phillies
C- J.T. Realmuto, Garrett Stubbs
IF- Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura, Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, Edmundo Sosa
OF- Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, Nick Castellanos
Util- Matt Vierling, Nick Maton
DH- Bryce Harper
SP- Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez, Noah Syndergaard
RP- Seranthony Domínguez, José Alvarado, Zach Eflin, David Robertson, Brad Hand, Andrew Bellatti, Connor Brogdon
LR- Kyle Gibson, Nick Nelson
Comments