Today, we will take a deep dive into the xwOBA pool to determine how the Astros should divide playing time when Chas McCormick and Michael Brantley return.
First, let's not bury the lead. I would send down Bannon and Salazar upon McCormick's and Brantley's return. It is possible it will be Hensley sent down to give him playing time in AAA. We will watch that.
I give this to you because I think, after studying lineup choices and xwOBA data for over a year, I truly believe the Astros analytical department uses a very similar methodology to determine lineup recommendations to Dusty. Dusty has sometimes referenced a high level version of this kind of data.
Normally, I do not look at xwOBA data for a season until the season is over. For this exercise, I am choosing to use 2021-2023 xwOBA data by pitch type to build a grid of choices. For the rookies and part time players (Diaz, Julks, and others), this data is preliminary in nature and should be validated with human scout's thoughts. For some of the tertiary pitches (Splitter, Knuckle Curve, Sweeper, Slurve) there is just not enough data to be highly confident even for some starters.
The goal here is to answer the question who should play tonight given that ____ is the starting pitcher. For that starter one needs to know what their pitch repertoire is and what they excel at the most.
These tables show the xwOBA for the Astros players by the decision positions by pitch type vs. RHP (green) and LHP (yellow).
Catcher vs. RHP
Catcher vs. LHP
First Base vs. RHP
First Base vs. LHP
Left Field vs. RHP
Left Field vs. LHP
Center Field vs. RHP
Center Field vs. LHP
Here is how I would summarize that data into a starter grid.
Starter Grid vs. RHSP
Starter Grid vs. LHSP
Let's apply these grids to the Angels Series
Monday- Patrick Sandoval
Sandoval is a LHP who seems to have a GREAT Changeup and Slider and not such a great 4-seam Fastball.
The grid would say the starters SHOULD be if Brantley and McCormick were available:
Catcher- Diaz vs. the Changeup plus it is Brown day
First Base- Abreu- good vs. Changeup, Slider, and 4-seam
Center Field- Meyers- not good vs. Changeup but good vs. 4-seam and Slider
Left Field- Alvarez or McCormick
DH- McCormick or Alvarez
Do you also see with the LHSP why Brantley IS NOT being activated tonight?
Tuesday- Shohei Ohtani
Ohtani the Great is a tough RHP who we have to consider his Sweeper and Split. Unfortunately, those two pitches have some of the least data. We also need to look at some of the other pitches.
The grid would say the starters SHOULD be if Brantley and McCormick were available:
Catcher- it is kind of a toss-up. Diaz is likely the better option, but it will be Maldonado.
First Base- IF the Astros are serious about Brantley at 1B, this might be the night to try it. Best against Cutter and 4-Seam. It's kind of a toss-up too.
Center Field- Meyers is probably the best choice here, better vs. Sweeper and Cutter.
Left Field- Alvarez is the best option vs. the top 3 pitches
DH- probably Brantley if not at 1B
Wednesday- Griffin Canning
I suspect most of the batters will want in this game vs. RHP Canning and his 4-seam and Changeup. We also have a good slider here.
The grid would say the starters SHOULD be if Brantley and McCormick were available:
Catcher- Maldy does one thing decently at the plate. Hit fastballs (cutters, 4-seam, sinkers). He will start here. He is terrible vs. the Slider and I would start Diaz.
First Base- Abreu is a good matchup here
Center Field- IF there was another viable option at 2B (there isn't), THIS could be a Dubon start in CF. It should be McCormick over Meyers.
Left Field- Alvarez or Brantley are the best matchups
DH- Brantley or Alvarez are the best matchups
So, what do you all think?
Here are my predictions for the lineups in this series
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