Last week, we talked about the rumors surrounding a potential Bregman trade.
Without resetting how I think your attitude about the Astros trading one of their stars reflects how you feel about the Astros and possible professional sports in general, let me just say this. IF the Astros are going to trade one of Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, or Valdez in THIS off-season; I think the one to trade in Valdez.
I am NOT saying the Astros will or should trade Valdez. IF Dana Brown wants to create some salary space, fill other positional needs, AND get a prospect at the same time, Valdez is the best path to do that without materially impacting the 2024 season. In the framework I showed in the Bregman article, THIS would be a hybrid of group 2 and group 3 thinkers.
Chandler Rome wrote an excellent piece on this subject and much of what I am going to write going forward will assume that you have read that here. He reaches a similar conclusion about trading one of the star Astros.
This was his tweet to introduce that article.
Let's accept that a Valdez trade makes the most sense of the four now. I would like to reset the trade challenge I set out with the Phillies trade article this week here.
Now let's start the fun of making trade proposals. I would love everyone to participate in this. Here is the one rule. You have to find a CREDIBLE source that says the team you want the Astros to trade with WANTS what you are proposing to trade. The article I posted last night and that I am updating this morning with this intro will be my first example.
I gave you my source to explore this- the Chandler Rome article.
Here is my three team Astros trade proposal IF they are going to trade Valdez. This is an example of a deal I think the Astros might consider. There are hundreds of other options I am sure, but this will give you an idea of why they might make a huge trade.
One key resource I referred to is the content Mark and I went through here.
- Baltimore is shown as needing an ACE SP and RP.
- Tampa Bay is always in need of salary flexibility and depth to replace the players they will inevitably trade in Arbitration.
- I would love a deal where the Astros get a starting OF, a LHRP, and a SP or someone that COULD be a starter before the end of the season.
Trade Evaluation
A quick shoutout to my Twitter / X friend Cipher who evaluated a few options for me as I built this trade. He also gave me a version of this table that I think summarized this evaluation of the trade well. Thanks Cipher!
Why the Astros would do this deal
Most everyone knows and has a strong opinion about Arozarena. Folks, he has three years of control and is a 3 WAR LF. This made him the 5th highest WAR primary position LF player in the MLB.
Hall is top 20 RP and his projected WAR is on par with Pressly and Abreu. He is a LHRP. He is under control for 6 plus years.
Montgomery is the top 7 prospect for the Rays. He is LHSP and is on par with Colton Gordon as a prospect. He could start if needed in 2024.
These are three of the critical needs I think the Astros have.
The Astros would reduce their payroll $3.1M AAV. They do get a net reduction in WAR of 1.1. I do think that is overstated because I am not sure Framber Valdez delivers 4.1 WAR in 2024.
Consider what the lineup would look like if this deal happened. Stats here are 2023 stats.
Why the Rays would do this deal
The Rays are in perpetual payroll management. Arozarena would project as their fourth highest payroll player. Reducing their net payroll nearly $9M in 2024 and $14M in 2025 is an important plus for the Rays.
Cowser is the 14th top prospect in the MLB. He would step in for Arozarena. He has rookie of the year potential and full years of team control. Cowser will far out produce the PT reduced projected WAR and would fit in extremely well for the Rays needs.
The Rays would NOT want to trade Montgomery. They will have to be convinced that Cowser is worth it.
Why the Orioles would do this deal
Why in the world would the Orioles trade away Cowser and Hall?
The biggest need the Orioles have is a veteran ace level SP to match the Kyle Bradish. Framber Valdez is EXACTLY what the Orioles need. They can't get a FA ace at the price point of Valdez.
The Orioles are in win now mode. They have a good OF now. Another top prospect (24th in MLB) is OF/DH Kjerstad. They CAN actually trade Cowser. They could use maybe a good defensive 4th OF- a Jake Meyers.
Baltimore has 4 LHRP projected for the bullpen. No, they won't want to trade Hall BUT they are getting Valdez.
I make think all three make this deal.
What do you think? Who says no and why?
Conclusion
IF the Astros are going to trade Valdez, there are deals they can make that help keep them in the championship hunt and address other needs on the team.
If the Astros can get a deal like this, should they trade Framber Valdez? Please comment here. If you disagree, please do so respectfully.
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