Explore the Astros' decision to sign Hector Neris in our 'Astros: To Neris or Not to Neris' blog post. Uncover the reasons behind the move and its impact.
This week we got the news that the Chicago Cubs have DFAed AND RELEASED Hector Neris. The key to this is that Neris and his $9M AAV salary passed through waivers, and he has been released.
Today, there are reports that Hector Neris WILL be signed by the Astros. I started this article two days ago and I just decided to wait until this deal happened.
Of course this leads to obvious questions:
Why did the Cubs just waive and release Neris?
Why did NO TEAM claim him?
Why are the Astros bringing back Neris now?
I asked this question on X.
Then I followed it up this this post to provide a guide to an answer.
The overall question for us Astros fans is to Neris or not to Neris. The team is saying YES, and I agree.
Why did the Cubs release Neris?
I THINK this was requested by Neris because he plans to retire, and he wanted to pursue a ring one last time.
I assume that when the Cubs signed Neris before the season there was an expectation that they were "going for it." When that changed this month, I think there was pressure to "do right" to Neris and let him go.
Why did NO TEAM claim him?
I don't think any team wanted to pay ~$2M for two months of Hector Neris. There are some teams desperate for RP help that might have thought about it.
I think Neris told teams NOT to claim him. He wanted to choose where to go; and if they claimed him, he could just retire. I thought as soon as I heard this news of his release, that he would be coming to the Astros, and I tried to guide that in my social media postings.
Why are the Astros bringing back Neris now?
This is the real question.
Let me give you a couple of possible read-between-the-lines possibilities.
Pressly is hurt worse than they are saying. I don't believe this but....
Murfee is not going to help in 2024. His first appearance in AAA was a mess.
The Astros have multiple relief pitchers that are at or past their max innings over the past three seasons.
Any of these three could be a REASON the team is signing Neris, OR it could simply think he is a better option.
This is how I consider most possibilities to add to the Astros bullpen currently.
I think of the Astros bullpen in tiers:
High Leverage- Hader, Pressly, Abreu
Medium Leverage- Scott (This is where the team wanted Montero but he failed)
Medium to Low Leverage- Ort, King, Ferguson
Low Leverage/ Long Relief- Dubin, Martinez
Wild Cards- Whitley, Murfee
That is NINE RPs and two Wildcards and now we are adding Neris. The Astros are running with six SP for the rest of the season. That means there are only SEVEN RP spots until rosters expand to 14 pitchers on 9/1/24.
Pressly is on the IL (maybe we see why now). Let's call him the eighth RP we add on 9/1/24 for now.
Who are the seven other RP and how does Neris match up?
Let's assume Neris would slot into the medium leverage tier with Scott. Neris has a worrisome 0.331 xwOBA (more on that later.) Neris and Scott have similar FIPs and Neris actually projects to pitch better than Scott the rest of the year. Scott has an extremely low 0.197 BABIP while Neris' BABIP is higher than career averages.
Compared to the Medium/ Low tier, Neris is similar.
Ferguson as an Astro and is projected to be very on par with Neris.
For King and Ort, I am showing the combined MLB/ AAA stats for 2024. These should be the stats for consideration. King was great in AAA too. King is having a career year. Can he keep it up so far over his max innings pitched? The projections do not think so. Ort was mediocre at best in AAA, and his MLB success is driven in part by an unsustainably low BABIP.
Neris projects to be better than both Ort and King for the rest of 2024.
Of the low/long relievers, I expect Martinez will be odd man out.
Let's focus the bullpen based on FIP and projected FIP alone. This will focus you down to the decisions I THINK will be made.
I think Ort and King will be competing for the last spot on the pitching staff until Pressly returns. In September, King and Ort may cycle onto the staff depending on the platoon strengths needed.
At this point you should ask, what about that 0.331 xwOBA?
Here is the xwOBA by pitch type.
Notice the Sinker and Slider have been HORRIBLE this year.
What would it look like if Neris abandoned the Sinker and the Slider?
If Neris did this his xwOBA would improve to an average 0.310.
The Astros answer to the question to Neris or not to Neris is to Neris today. Let's see if it works. If he does not pitch well, they can easily cut him.
The Astros were correct to not spend $9M AAV on Neris. I believe they are also correct in bringing him for the league minimum now.
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