The Two Trades the Astros Should Make

Looking to make the right MLB trade deadline moves? Find out the two trades LarryTheGM recommends the Astros Should Make.

At LarryTheGM, we have been covering the MLB Trade Deadline in the way we cover most baseball issues, objectively and with data. The headquarters for all of our MLB trade deadline content is here.

https://www.larrythegm.com/post/astros-mlb-2024-trade-deadline-headquarters

Today, I will recommend the deals I would make given what teams have already done. I have graded all of the trades here and there are a few trends that are clear on 7/29/24.

https://www.larrythegm.com/post/mlb-trade-grades

Trends/ Conclusions

1. The Rays are having a garage sale. It looks like Tampa truly is selling ANY player they can even those in arbitration. The Tampa grades are:

   1. Eflin- SP (selling)- D

   2. Arozarena- OF (selling)- B or C

   3. Sulser- RP (for cash)- N/A

   4. Adam- RP (selling)- A (What were the Padres thinking?)

   5. Paredes- IF (selling)- C or F

   6. Conclusion- Yandy Diaz is probably cheap

2. Confirmed Sellers

   1. Rays!!

   2. Marlins

   3. Blue Jays

   4. Rockies

   5. Angels

   6. Nationals

   7. Tigers

   8. Conclusion- Tigers might sell Flaherty but at what cost?

3. Buyers

   1. Orioles

   2. Phillies

   3. Red Sox

   4. Mariners

   5. Yankees

   6. Mets

   7. Brewers

   8. Padres

   9. Diamondbacks

   10. Royals

   11. Cubs- Wait the Cubs are Buying?

       1. 7.3% odds of making the 2024 postseason

       2. They are making GOOD long-term deals

          1. Paredes is not a Free Agent until 2028- Slam Dunk A Grade

          2. Pearson is not a Free Agent until 2027- a B or A Grade

       3. Conclusion- The Cubs seem to be focused on winning NEXT YEAR and open for good trade deals. The Tailon deal may qualify.

4. Teams Buying and Selling

   1. Rangers

5. Relief Pitcher Deals are Severe Overpays- Grades of teams selling RP

   1. Marlins (Puk)- A or C

   2. Mariners (Stanek)- A

   3. Blue Jays (Garcia)- A

   4. Mets (Sulser)- N/A (Cash)

   5. Blue Jays (Pearson)- B or F

   6. Rockies (Mears)- C or A

   7. Angels (Estévez)- A

   8. Rays (Adam)- A

6. Starting Pitcher Deals have been Scarce and Underpays- Grades of teams selling SP

   1. Rays (Eflin)- D

   2. Dodgers (Paxton)- F

   3. Rangers (Lorenzen) - F

   4. Conclusion- Is the price for most starters too high and we are in a waiting game? I think so.

My two deals that I think the Astros should make TODAY if possible.

Trade #1

Astros Receive- Jamison Taillon and Drew Smyly plus $5M Cash in 2024 and $2.5M Cash in 2025

Cubs Receive- Rafael Montero, Ceasar Salazar, Shawn Dubin, and Pedro Leon

Financial Details

Why Cubs do this

• They dump $17M AAV Taillon's salary in 2025 AND 2026 

• They get a bridge backup catcher Salazar until Ballesteros is ready

• They get a younger arm in Dubin with potential and control

• They get a high ceiling, high risk prospect in Leon

• They add an arm that COULD help their RP in Montero for 2024 and 2025.
  

• Overall, net reduction in payroll of ~$18-20M

Why the Astros do this

• Taillon would fit in as a viable #3 / #4 Starter - 4.48 ERA/ 4.31 FIP Projected ROS

• Smyly can be a swing RP/SP - LHP - 4.37 ERA/ 4.36 FIP Projected ROS

• They dump $11.5M AAV Montero's salary in 2025

• With the cash proposal it is near cost neutral in 2024- actually improves $0.7M

Trade Value Grade- B for both teams

WAR Value Grades

• A for the Astros- Taillon is the most valuable player in the trade

• F for the Cubs- they are getting financial benefit and getting POTENTIAL in the Astros prospects.

Trade #2

Astros receive- Yandy Diaz and $1.7M Cash

Rays receive- Chas McCormick, PTBNL (Throw-in Level prospect)

Financial Details

Why Rays do this

• They dump Diaz's salary in 2025 AND 2026 

• They get a starting OF in McCormick to replace Arozarena. Projections show he might be great in 2025-2026.

• Overall, net reduction in payroll of ~$4-7M in 2025-2026

Why the Astros do this

• Diaz is a perfect fit for what the Astros need at 1B and is limited risk cost wise.

• With the cash proposal it is cost neutral in 2024

• Chas is limited by the others in the Astros OF. He might flourish in Tampa.

Trade Value Grade

• A for the Astros- The Astros take advantage of the Garage sale pricing in Tampa

• C for the Rays- Not the worst deal the Rays have made, desperate to shed costs

WAR Value Grades

• C for the Astros- McCormick might be more valuable in the next 3 years

• A for the Rays- Could be the best deal they made.

This deal is only this lopsided to the Astros because of the sale the Rays seem to be having. There are available prospects that can make the deal more fail if needed.

https://www.larrythegm.com/post/who-can-the-astros-trade-the-viable-trade-assets

Notice that these deals are done AND keep the Astros under the CBT2 in 2024.

These two deals give the Astros what they need at this MLB Trade Deadline. I still would prefer a Flaherty deal at SP, but I am concerned that the lack of MLB deals indicated the SP costs are too high.

Please leave me your comments below.