The All-Star break is over. The series this weekend with the Mariners is in my view THE most important three games of the season.
IF the Astros sweep these three games, they will be alone on the top of the AL West. If the Astros get swept in these games, there will be a lot more work to come. These two teams will not play again until 9/23/24.
To mark the importance of these three games, I am making this Premium Astros Series Guides for this series available for all.
Unlock the game within the game with the Astros Series Guide Data- Mariners. Get in-depth batting, pitching, and expected stats analysis.
Once Again, thank you for supporting this site and helping us exist.
Video at 7:10:
Now, let me give you the series guide.
Current Team Status
Status before the series
The Astros remain in the playoff hunt 2 games out of the AL West lead and 2.5 games out of the third wild card spot.
They have been a good hitting and not good pitching team in 2024. Their pitching has been significantly better since 6/1/24.
Overall Astros Series Statistical Matchup
The Mariners are great at pitching and have dropped off since 2023 hitting.
Bating Lineups Comparison
This table compares the offenses of the two teams by each spot in their projected typical batting orders.
The current Astros lineup projects to hit 116 wRC+ the rest of the season and is hitting 110 so far. The current Mariners lineup projects to hit 102 wRC+ the rest of the season and is hitting only 95 so far.
We have talked a lot about the Astros offense with RISP. Here is the current status and the June data.
Pitching Staff Comparison
The Astros are projected to pitch 4.18 FIP for the rest of 2024 and have pitched to a 4.29 FIP so far. The Mariners are projected to pitch 3.86 FIP for the rest of 2024 and have pitched to a 3.70 FIP so far.
You can see how the starting and relief pitchers have fared so far.
The Mariners have GREAT starting pitching.
Expected Stats (xwOBA) Tables - by Pitch Type and Platoon
These tables form the basis of my MoneyMaker matchups. One can follow the action and see what pitches the pitchers throw well and what pitches the hitter hit well.
This data unlocks the game within the game. It comes from the data provided from Baseball Savant. This data will change how you watch baseball if you really understand it.
First, I give you the Astros Data.
Astros Batters vs. LHP
Astros Batters vs. RHP
Notice how the Astros batters are better vs. fastballs than they are breaking and off-speed pitches.
Astros Pitching vs. LHH
Astros Pitching vs. RHH
Opponent Batters vs. LHP
Opponent Batters vs. RHP
Opponent Pitching vs. LHH
Opponent Pitching vs. RHH
The beauty of this data is you can see the relative strengths and weaknesses of the hitter and pitcher and then understand why certain players are pitched the way they are and why substitutions are made.
Don't get lost in the numbers too much. Pay attention to the heatmap color if that helps.
Basic Rules
Red is good for that player.
Blue is not good.
Average xwOBA set at 0.319.
The hitter and pitcher data gets cross referenced to produce the MoneyMaker Astros Daily Lineup Analysis that could be used to get an edge for your fantasy baseball teams.
Also check out the MoneyMaker: Astros Daily Lineup Analysis here for tonight's game. Video after the lineups are released.
Data Description
Batting Data- 2023
This data shows for each batter the pitch mix they faced vs. LHP and RHP.
Then the data show how each batter performed vs. that type of pitch as shown by xwOBA data.
xwOBA is used because we are trying to understand the quality of the contact they had vs. each pitch - velocity, launch angle, etc.- and are less focused on the actual luck impacted result.
Under the total section
One can see how many total pitches that batter faced vs. the LHP/ RHP.
I have supplied all of the data available.
HOWEVER, if a player has less than 200 total pitches in a data set, I would be very careful and definitely focus more on the total and less on the pitch type data. These lines are formatted in yellow.
These lines are formatted in yellow.
For the Astros this impacts analysis for Singleton and Kessinger.
Similarly, off-speed pitch data is less robust as well for the same sample size issue.
One can then see how the batter performed overall.
xwOBA
wOBA- this shows how the actual performance compared to predicted performance.
This in essence captures the luck aspects of their 2023 season. A batter with a wOBA 0.030 higher than their xwOBA was lucky in 2023.
In some case there is no data, or it is marked N/A. These happen for rookie pitchers where the is no 2023 data or where Baseball Savant does not have data for that pitch type.
Pitching Data- 2023
This data shows for each pitcher the pitch mix they throw vs. LHH and RHH.
Then the data show how each pitch performed with that type of pitch as shown by xwOBA data.
xwOBA is used because we are trying to understand the quality of the contact hitters had against them for each pitch - velocity, launch angle, etc.- and are less focused on the actual luck impacted result.
Under the total section
One can see how many total pitches that pitcher threw vs. the LHH/ RHH.
I have supplied all of the data available.
HOWEVER, if a player has less than 200 total pitches in a data set, I would be very careful and definitely focus more on the total and less on the pitch type data.
These lines are formatted in yellow.
For the Astros this impacts analysis for Mushinski, Hader vs. LHH, and Scott vs. LHH
Similarly, off-speed pitch data is less robust as well for the same sample size issue. If a player has less than 10% of a pitch type, consider this a warning. This impacts MANY pitchers.
One can then see how the pitcher performed overall.
xwOBA
wOBA- this shows how the actual performance compared to predicted performance.
This in essence captures the luck aspects of their 2023 season. A pitcher with a wOBA 0.030 lower than their xwOBA was lucky in 2023.
In some case there is no data, or it is marked N/A. These happen for rookie pitchers where the is no 2023 data or where Baseball Savant does not have data for that pitch type.
Comments