Most Astros fans would agree the Astros NEED SP. Who should they get? What would it take? Discover at that here at LarryTheGM!
We promised that when we hit the All-Star Break that we would be all over the Astros trade deadline. We are.
On 7/18/24, I ran a poll (per Clint's suggestion):
The results are not that surprising.
If you missed the other coverage here at LarryTheGM.com, check out these articles.
Clint discussed the big picture here.
I defined the Astros trade deadline needs.
We went through the roster and defined who could be traded and their relative values.
During the video below, we went through the article where I proposed options for an Astros' trade for 1B help.
We were live on Thursday talking about all of this. Check it out.
In the trade deadline needs article I said this:
"All this is to say the Astros need at least one SP and possibly two. The challenge for the Astros in getting a SP or even two SP is that the franchise does NOT have a ton of tradeable assets."
In summary, the goal is to find a SP that can be a post season starter and possibly a second SP that could be a long relief option in the postseason. We showed a potential postseason roster that looked like this.
So, let's make a deal for the Astros at SP. What would it take?
Let me start by saying this will be my first pass at a pitcher trade target list. Expect updates before we get to the trade deadline.
This roster would leave off Arrighetti, Bloss, Montero, Matinez, and Dubin. Of this group Dubin and Martinez would be projected to end the season at 3.85 and 4.24 FIP respectfully. The pitcher the Astros acquire should be in that quality AT LEAST.
The average ERA/FIP is 4.07. The Average wOBA/ xwOBA is 0.310. The wOBA/ xwOBA vs. LHP/RHP should at least be in that range too.
I started with a list of 212 SP (GS >3) pitchers with more than 20 IP in 2024 and applied the following filters.
2024 YTD FIP <4.4
Projected ROS FIP <4.4
2024 YTD xwOBA vs. both RHH/ LHH <0.330
Years of control less than 3 years - limited financial commitment
AAV <20 with a preference to be as low as possible
My list of pitchers drops to 13.
The players whose teams are in black are not likely to be traded because their teams have greater than 30% odds of making the postseason.
Here are the five.
The Rangers are not going to trade Eovaldi to the Astros.
IF any of these deals get done probably has more to do with the Salary than anything. Do the Astros make a trade for 1B help and how much does that player cost in payroll? One deal possibly impacts the other.
Here are the statistical details of these five before last night's games.
YTD data
Projected Stats for the Rest of the Season
Here are the wOBA and xwOBA stats vs. LHH and RHH
These five meet all of my metrics and are on teams that are more likely selling.
Here is my order of these trades:
1. Flaherty
2. Martinez
3. Taillon
4. Eovaldi
5. Heaney
What would a trade for Flaherty look like? The data here is from the excellent BaseballTradeValues.com. I would suggest if folks really wanted to understand trade values to subscribe to that site.
To calibrate to a viable trade, I think a slight overpay is needed.
For a Flaherty trade, I THINK Detroit would prefer near-MLB prospects. McCormick might also be an option here in place of Dezenzo if they want to move towards a win in 2025 mode.
We have shopped at the caviar section of the SP market. Next time we will explore lower cost, higher risk, and probably lower impact options that are probably more realistic for our Houston Astros. This will include some wild deals that might blow your mind.
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