The Astros' Kikuchi deal raises questions about the team's roster management. Is this a short-sighted move or a step towards postseason success in 2024?
Folks, the Houston Astros have had a consistent mindset towards roster management from the day Jeff Luhnow was hired to the day James Click was fired. After Click left, this organization has made epically bad, short-sighted, flashy, logic lacking, attention-grabbing moves that have consistently failed.
These moves include:
Signing Jose Abreu to an insanely expensive and lengthy contract that had almost no chance of not being a financial disaster before completion
Signing Rafael Montero to a foolishly huge closer like contract to a relief pitcher coming off his career anomaly year.
Signing Michael Brantley without any thorough medical review only to see him be mainly a high-priced cheerleader that was great in the clubhouse.
Last year at this time the same pattern of decisions continued.
Justin Verlander (one of the oldest pitchers in the last 10 years) was acquired in a trade send two of the organization's top prospects off in order to get the money to pay for the questionable deal.
Trading for another marginal and aging RP Graveman only to see him fail (5.00 FIP) and get hurt.
All of this time, observers have seen Dana Brown make small non-flashy moves to maximize returns while constrained by the financial trap set by his owner.
This season, I had hope that Dana Brown had taken the mantle from his GM predecessors to wise decision making. He seemed to speak to the multiple constraints that existed like he understood the path forward.
Headed into this trade deadline the Astros exuded confidence they WOULD get something done.
I wrote what I THOUGHT fit the constraints here.
I felt like the trades I proposed would work for the other teams too meeting their needs.
Tonight, we got word that the Astros made a deal to get Yusei Kikuchi from the Blue Jays. Initially, it was reported that the trade involved Jake Bloss. I worked to evaluate that deal. Frankly, I did not like it, but I could see why it might make sense.
Then, it was reported that in addition that Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner were ALSO in the deal to be sent to Toronto.
Now, the Kikuchi deal raises a massive number of questions and concerns for the Astros. I have many questions about who is driving the decision to make this kind of deal.
Here is a video with my thoughts:
Here is my scoring of this deal.
It is an F for the Astros. It is arguably one of the worst overpays of all of the trades made this year.
Kikuchi is a RENTAL. For his services for the next two months the Astros traded their top pitching prospects, one of their best OF prospects, AND one of the best IF prospects.
Overall, the BaseballTradeValues.com website indicates that the Astros paid 17.3 in trade value for 4.9. A massive, massive, massive overpay.
I ASSUME there must be cash in this deal to pay for the remainder of Kikuchi's contract. This CANNOT be the complete deal. It would be than any of the epically bad deals I mentioned up front. Ten to Eleven starts from Kikuchi IS NOT worth what they paid.
My problem is I do not trust that Jim Crane has once again taken the reigns as GM and done something STUPID. He has done it multiple times and it will cause this dynastic golden era of the Astros to end. You cannot make short sighted deals repeatedly and expect long term success.
Let me give you the justification I PLANNED to give when the deal was simply Bloss for Kikuchi.
Kikuchi WILL HELP the Astros Staff
Season to Date Stats
How you think of Kikuchi's 2024 season YTD largely depends on what you think of ERA vs. FIP and BABIP. Kikuchi's FIP- would be BEST among the SP. His WAR is the highest.
Projected Stats
Kikuchi projects to be the second or third best starter for the rest of the season. He better be.
xwOBA/wOBA data
The xwOBA data tends to validate that Kikuchi has been unlucky so far in 2024 and this is driving the ERA to FIP spread.
To summarize, the Astros traded for a #3 Starter and paid the Blue Jays as if he was an ace.
Let me be clear. This deal incrementally INCREASES their odds of postseason success in 2024. Luhnow and Click balanced short term success with long term dominance. We seem to have lost focus on the later.
I ALWAYS say pay attention to what teams do and not what they say. Their actions today tell me this:
they do NOT believe in Jake Bloss
they do NOT believe in Joey Loperfido
they have other IFs over Will Wagner in priority.
The Astros do have a sample size with the first two in the MLB. There are reasons to have doubts in Bloss's command and with Loperfido's strikeout rate and early season luck.
What is next Astros? You cannot make this your only deal. Do something SMART for a change.
One aspect left to consider is what will the Astros do now without Loperfido and Tucker still out. Is that another trade eminent? Could the Astros be signaling it is time for Pedro Leon? We will see.
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