The Astros 2024 Season has been a roller coaster of highs and lows for fans in the first half. Join Clint and I on All-Star Game night to review these highs and lows on YouTube and watch the game with us. We will start at 6PM Tuesday and cover our list and ask for your input.
Discover the Astros rollercoaster ride in the first half of the 2024 season. From surprising player highs to devastating lows, it's been an unforgettable journey for Astros fans.
At the bottom of this Article, I have tables that show.
Astros players and team PRE-SEASON Projections
Astros players and team pre-ASB ACTUAL performances
Astros players and team REST OF SEASON Projections
Astros players and team Actual plus ROS Projection statistics- this would be the current END OF YEAR projections
My Highs and lows will build from the data in these tables.
Data is from the excellent Fangraphs.com and Baseballsavant.com.
Highs
Meyers Rises
Astros fans were extremely frustrated with the prospect of Meyers being the Astros primary CF in the offseason. He has changed the narrative.
Projected Preseason- 399 PA- 93 wRC+- 1.2 WAR
Actual
28.1 years old- 2.044 ST
293 PA- 109 wRC+- 2.0 WAR
Actual + ROS Projected
484 PA (+85 PA over projections)
107 wRC+ (+14 over projections)
2.9 WAR (1.7 over projections)
Some other highlights:
In 96 games, has 67% more WAR than was projected before the season
Fifth highest WAR among players while playing CF (better than Rodriguez, Robert Jr., among others
.
Singleton- Better Late then Never
The Singleton story is a baseball movie waiting to be produced.
Singleton was once a highly touted prospect (2011-2014). He rose quickly to the Astros in 2014 (age 22) and 2015 and struggled.
He smoked his way into prospect purgatory and left professional baseball in 2017.
In 2021, at age 29, he appeared in the Mexican League. The next season the Brewers took a shot on the comeback story.
By 2023, Singleton had shown remaining potential in AAA and the Brewers gave him a shot and ... it was worse than ever. Singleton was granted Free Agency on 6/21/23.
Three days later, the Astros gave Singleton the chance to complete the circle of life. They signed him to a minor league deal and once again Singleton raked in AAA.
On 8/8/23, Singleton was called up to the Astros. Days later Singleton became the primary 1B when Jose Abreu was sent to IL. Singleton, once again struggled to only a 51 wRC+. However, there were signs he might be OK as a part time player/ backup.
The Astros entered 2024 not expecting Singleton to do much more than be a backup 1B, and LH PH. That is what he did early until 4/11. Singleton started in the next three games, giving the already struggling Jose Abreu and his early -47 wRC+ bat a break.
Singleton clicked in those three games, and by the time Abreu was sent to Florida, Singleton was hitting 110 wRC+ from 4/11/24 to 4/28/24.
While Abreu was gone to Florida, Singleton became the primary 1B and hit at age 32 like the Astros had hoped he would a decade earlier- 126 wRC+.
When Abreu came back for the next 17 days, Singleton slumped - 5 wRC+.
Since Abreu was released and for the month since, Singleton is hitting 126 wRC+ as the primary 1B.
Where does it go from here? There are rumors that the Astros are in the market for a 1B, and we will address that soon.
Singleton's story in 2024 so far is absolutely one of the highlights of the 1H of the season.
32.8 years old- 1.069 ST- 257 PA- 102 wRC+- 0.1 WAR
Young Bats Make a Difference- Contributors Under 28 and LT 2.001 Service Time
The Astros have sustained an ALCS participating team longer than most other fans could only dream of in the modern era of the MLB.
Their farm system is considered one of the worst in the MLB.
Despite that the organization has developed several position players that are contributing to the foundation of the team's stars.
These players may be the core of the near future. Including:
Jeremy Pena
Projected Preseason- 637 PA- 96 wRC+- 2.1 WAR
Actual
26.8 yrs old- 2.000 ST
392 PA- 100 wRC+- 1.9 WAR
Actual + ROS Projected
654 PA (+17 PA over projections)
100 wRC+ (+3 over projections)
3.1 WAR (1.0 over projections)
Yainer Diaz
Projected Preseason- 441 PA- 110 wRC+- 1.8 WAR
Actual
25.8 yrs old- 1.035 ST
347 PA- 101 wRC+- 1.2 WAR
Actual + ROS Projected
529 PA (+88 PA over projections)
104 wRC+ (-6 under projections)
2.1 WAR (0.4 over projections)
Joey Loperfido
Projected Preseason- 42 PA- 86 wRC+- 0.0WAR
Actual
25.2 yrs old- 0.000 ST
98 PA- 113 wRC+- 0.6 WAR
Actual + ROS Projected
218 PA (+176 PA over projections)
102 wRC+ (+16 over projections)
0.7 WAR (0.7 over projections)
Pena, Diaz, and Loperfido are outperforming from a WAR projection
All are playing more than expected
The Astros are doing the extremely difficult task of turning playing time over to younger players while having those younger players produce.
Hunter Brown- It was the worst of times. It was the best of times.
The Hunter Brown story of 2024 is one you may tell your grandchildren about.
Brown entered the 2024 season with expectations of delivering the third highest WAR of the pitching staff at his age 25 season.
The season started out as a disaster for Brown. Though 5/17 and 8 GS.
37.1 IP (4.2 IP Ave), 7.71 ERA, 5.52 FIP, -0.2 WAR
His WAR ranks 130th out of 134 pitchers with 30+ IP.
Since 5/18 and 10 GS
61.0 IP (6 IP Ave), 2.36 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 1.4 WAR
His WAR is 20th best in the MLB out of 87 pitchers with 50+ IP
Brown's resilience, being open to coaching, trying new things (the sinker) are all lessons you can apply to this season to Brown.
One could argue that the Astros season has tracked along with Brown's performance.
Young/ New Pitching Emerges
The Astros have been desperate for pitching help based on an epidemic of pitching injuries. Beyond Brown, these pitchers have arguably saved the Astros season. Including:
Ronel Blanco
Projected Preseason- 94 IP- 4.38 ERA, 4.57 FIP- 0.4 WAR
Actual
30.9 yrs old- 0.101 ST
109 IP- 2.56 ERA, 4.42 FIP- 1.0 WAR
Actual + ROS Projected
170 IP (+76 IP over projections)
3.23 ERA (1.15 under projections)
4.46 FIP (0.11 under projections)
1.5 WAR (1.1 over projections)
Spencer Arrighetti
Projected Preseason- 24 IP- 4.64 ERA, 4.78 FIP- 0.1 WAR
Actual
24.5 yrs old- 0.000 ST
80 IP- 5.63 ERA, 4.50 FIP- 0.7 WAR
Actual + ROS Projected
124 IP (+100 IP over projections)
5.23 ERA (0.58 over projections)
4.51 FIP (0.26 under projections)
1.0 WAR (0.9 over projections)
Tayler Scott and Shawn Dubin have also similarly outperformed expectation. These arms have saved the Astros pitching while more experienced arms have underperformed or been injured.
Those were some of the Highs of the 1H of the Astros 2024 Season. What were some of the lows?
Lows
Where to begin? OK, let's start with the obvious.
Jose Abreu is Finished
Astros fans believed Jose Abreu was the answer when he was signed by Jim Crane (when he was playing GM) after the 2022 Season. He started out terribly but was good/ great in the last month and in the 2023 post season.
What version of Jose Abreu could the team expect in 2024? The projections said this in the preseason.
618 PA- 108 wRC+- 1.0 WAR
Not what they signed Abreu for in terms of production, but better than the 86 wRC+ of 2023.
Before he went to Florida to work on his timing/ swing, the early season was TERRIBLE
77 PA- (-22) wRC+- (-1.2) WAR
Abreu was THE WORST player in the MLB on 4/28 by WAR
After 4 weeks Abreu came back for 18 days. It still was not even decent.
43 PA- 41 wRC+- (-0.3) WAR
On 7/13, I wrote this article, "Astros: How Long"
On 7/14, Abreu was released.
Is it a Pitching Staff or a M.A.S.H. Unit?
Below is a table with all of the Astros pitchers who have pitched or would have pitched if they were not injured. There are 35 pitchers on this list and 7 pitchers have been out all year and not thrown a pitch.
The Astros have lost a total off 1025 days to pitcher injuries. Given we are 110 days into the season, that is the equivalent of 9.32 pitchers lost for the season.
It hasn't just been bad pitchers either.
Of the top 10 SP by grade and expectation:
1 was release due to performance- Bielak
7 have been out at least 20 days
6 have been out nearly 50% of the season
3 are out for the rest of the season
3 have not pitched an inning yet
I would argue it has been miraculous that the Astros pitching has been as good as it has been.
Is Montero Finished Too?
With Jose Abreu, fans seemed to be ready to move on way before the team was. I am at that same point with Rafael Montero.
Some Low Lights
35.1 IP
4.84 ERA
6.42 FIP
0.245 BABIP (he is actually LUCKY to be this bad)
1.39 WHIP (1.28 MLB Average)
5.86 K/9 (8.79 MLB Average)
4.08 BB/9 (3.49 MLB Average)
2.04 HR/9 (1.01 MLB Average)
vs. LHH - 0.412 wOBA, 0.389 xwOBA, 0.259 BABIP (he is lucky)
vs. RHH - 0.297 wOBA, 0.333 xwOBA, 0.229 BABIP (he is lucky)
Statcast by Pitch vs. LHH
Statcast by Pitch vs. RHH
The ONLY pitch Montero has a good chance of getting anyone out with is a sinker to RHH. LHH? Forget it.
I am getting close to writing a Montero version of the "How Long" Article.
Who stole 2023 Chas McCormick from Us?
Next to Jose Abreu, Chas McCormick has been the most disappointing Astros hitter.
Projected Preseason- 532 PA- 110 wRC+- 2.0 WAR
Actual
29.2 yrs old- 3.000 ST
174 PA- 62 wRC+- (-0.3) WAR
Actual + ROS Projected
379 PA (-153 PA under projections)
85 wRC+ (-25 under projections)
0.5 WAR (-1.5 under projections)
Whatever is happening to Chas needs to be fixed.
There is hope at least vs. LHP.
vs. LHP- wOBA 0.243, xwOBA 0.336, BABIP 0.270- An xwOBA of 0.336 is above average. He should be hitting LHP but nothing close to 2022 (xwOBA 0.392) or 2023 (xwOBA 0.387).
vs. RHP- wOBA 0.258, xwOBA 0.267, BABIP 0.271- An xwOBA of 0.267 is NOT good. He is regressed from 2022 (xwOBA 0.299) and 2023 (xwOBA 0.321).
Let's show you the numbers in heatmap form.
vs. LHP
Against LHP in 2024, McCormick has a significant BABIP issue vs. 2023/2022.
His exit velocities vs. LHP 4-seam FB-- 2022- 93.1, 2023- 90.1, 2024- 84.7
His Barrel/PA% vs. LHP 4-seam FB-- 2022- 16.7%, 2023- 15.7%, 2024- 6.9%
His launch angle vs. LHP Changeups-- 2022- 4, 2023- 17, 2024- 32
If Chas could adjust to barrel more 4-seamers and cut his launch angle on changeups, we MIGHT see the 2023 version of Chas vs. LHP. How to do that is a much more detailed discussion.
vs. RHP
Similarly, McCormick is struggling vs. RHP 4-seam fastballs relative to his massive strength there in 2022 and 2023. His 0.182 BABIP is unsustainably low. His 85.8 Exit velocity and 30-degree launch angle are very concerning.
What does it all mean? McCormick needs to get his swing right vs. 4-seam fastballs. This was his strength, but it has not been in 2024.
When will Tucker Heal?
Kyle Tucker went out on 6/3/24 with a shin contusion. When will it heal to the point where he can start playing again? It has been 43 days!
There you have it. These are some of the Highs and Lows of the First Half of the Astros 2024 Season. Tell me what you think. Comment below or reach out to me on social media.
For those of you who love the data, these tables are for you.
Astros players and team PRE-SEASON Projections
Astros players and team pre-ASB ACTUAL performances
Astros players and team REST OF SEASON Projections
Astros players and team Actual plus ROS Projection statistics- this would be the current END OF YEAR projections
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